What will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 20%, Polymarket at 27% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
1 contract
Polymarket
27%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$66K
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
240 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 20¢ · Polymarket 27¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (20¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (27¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
Cluster 2
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Trust
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-TRUS
What moved the line
- Apr 29↓ 45,000↓9pp39→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑ 200,000↓8pp12→4¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↓ 40,000↓7pp31→24¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 200,000↑7pp5→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓ 45,000↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Will Ricky Stenhouse finish in the top 10 at NASCAR Jack Link's 500last 27% · 1d
- What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearinglast 14% · 1d
- What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)last 14% · 1d
- What will Oz Pearlman say during White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 14% · 1d
- What will Jared Isaacman say during Senate Committee on Appropriations - NASA Budget hearinglast 14% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.