What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
Leader sits at 94% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
California
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Texas
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$520
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
135 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Missouri
KXREDISTRICTING-26-MIS
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Louisiana
KXREDISTRICTING-26-LA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: California
KXREDISTRICTING-26-CA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Mississippi
KXREDISTRICTING-26-MS
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Utah
KXREDISTRICTING-26-UTAH
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Texas
KXREDISTRICTING-26-TX
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Florida
KXREDISTRICTING-26-FL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: North Carolina
KXREDISTRICTING-26-NC
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Ohio
KXREDISTRICTING-26-OH
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: New York
KXREDISTRICTING-26-NY
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Maryland
KXREDISTRICTING-26-MD
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Illinois
KXREDISTRICTING-26-IL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Alabama
KXREDISTRICTING-26-AL
Analysis
This probability estimates whether at least one state will conduct congressional redistricting before the November 2026 elections. At 96%, markets suggest redistricting is highly likely to occur. The main drivers are pending court decisions on existing redistricting plans and state legislative actions challenging current maps on partisan or racial grounds. Texas leads the contracts, suggesting it's viewed as the most probable state to redistrict. Key upcoming catalysts include federal court rulings on Section 5 challenges, state supreme court decisions on map constitutionality throughout 2026, and any legislative sessions scheduled to address redistricting disputes. The probability would decline if courts uphold existing maps or if states exhaust legal remedies without ordering new maps.
- ›Texas redistricting contract pricing at 96% reflects either an expected court-ordered redraw or anticipated legislative action before November 2026
- ›South Carolina (71¢) and Alabama (64¢) show moderate-to-high probabilities, suggesting active litigation or legislative pressure in these states
- ›Virginia contract at 58¢ indicates one specific state with meaningful redistricting likelihood, potentially from pending legal challenges
- ›Federal appellate decisions and state supreme court rulings on map constitutionality throughout spring-summer 2026 will directly determine resolution
- ›The 18-contract structure creates a winner-take-all payout, meaning the probability reflects markets assessing whether at least one state will redistrict, not the number of states
What moved the line
- Jun 12Florida↓5pp88→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Florida↑4pp83→87¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Missouri↑3pp76→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Florida↑3pp87→90¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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