What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
Leader sits at 97% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ohio
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
California
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
84 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia
KXREDISTRICTING-26-VIR
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Ohio
KXREDISTRICTING-26-OH
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Louisiana
KXREDISTRICTING-26-LA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Florida
KXREDISTRICTING-26-FL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: North Carolina
KXREDISTRICTING-26-NC
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Utah
KXREDISTRICTING-26-UTAH
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: California
KXREDISTRICTING-26-CA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Missouri
KXREDISTRICTING-26-MIS
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Illinois
KXREDISTRICTING-26-IL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Alabama
KXREDISTRICTING-26-AL
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 96% probability that Missouri will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections, with Texas and Florida also showing high probabilities (96% and 94% respectively). Congressional redistricting typically occurs after decennial censuses, but special circumstances can trigger mid-decade changes—primarily when courts order them due to constitutional violations or when state legislatures voluntarily pursue them for political advantage. The high probability reflects expectations that at least one of these states will undergo redistricting before November 2026. Key drivers include recent court decisions on existing maps, litigation timelines, and legislative willingness to act. Resolution depends on whether any redistricting plan is officially adopted and implemented by Election Day 2026, which would determine which contracts settle affirmatively versus void.
- ›Missouri has faced ongoing litigation over congressional maps; recent court rulings or settlement agreements would indicate redistricting likelihood
- ›Texas and Florida show nearly identical high probabilities, suggesting market belief that at least one major state will redistrict rather than each individually having 96% odds
- ›The 18-contract structure means exactly one state's outcome will be selected; if multiple states actually redistrict, only the designated winner settles
- ›Upcoming state legislative sessions or court decision dates in 2026 would provide concrete catalysts that could shift these probabilities significantly
- ›Historical pattern: mid-decade redistricting remains uncommon; most occur following census reapportionment in years ending in '01
What moved the line
- Aug 5Virginia↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Virginia↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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