XRP all time high by ___
Leader sits at 7% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
September 30, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$18
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
XRP all time high by ___
Analysis
The 14% probability reflects traders' current assessment that XRP will reach a new all-time high by a specified date in 2026. This estimate is shaped primarily by XRP's price momentum relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have shown stronger near-term bullish positioning in their own contracts (Bitcoin at 19% for December, Ethereum at 13%). XRP would need significant capital inflows or a major regulatory or partnership announcement to close the gap with leading cryptocurrencies. The main uncertainty driver is whether ongoing SEC litigation or regulatory clarity around XRP's classification will accelerate adoption. Resolution depends on XRP's price action against its previous peak of approximately $3.84 (January 2018), with particular attention to quarterly market cycles and potential Bitcoin dominance shifts that typically influence altcoin performance. Traders appear moderately skeptical of XRP outpacing broader market recovery within this timeframe.
- ›XRP's current price and distance from its all-time high of ~$3.84 in January 2018; any price action above that level before the contract deadline would invalidate the bearish positioning
- ›Relative weakness compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts for similar timeframes (Bitcoin December at 19%, Ethereum December at 13%); capital rotation patterns matter
- ›Regulatory developments or major exchange listings that could shift XRP's market perception; SEC settlement status or clarification on XRP's legal classification
- ›Bitcoin dominance levels; prolonged Bitcoin strength typically constrains altcoin rallies, while Bitcoin consolidation can trigger alt-season money flows
- ›Trading volume concentration; the low volume on these contracts ($36k-$50k per day) suggests limited institutional positioning, making outcomes more volatile to smaller catalysts
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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