XRP price up in next 15 mins
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 21%, Polymarket at 23%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
5 contracts
Polymarket
23%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$559
20 contracts
Top contract
61¢
$521 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 21¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (21¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “What price will XRP hit in 2026” vs “H100 SXM price up in next week”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price will XRP hit in 2026
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.60
0xb5b45b…4a3d
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.00
0x648f60…3bd5
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.40
0x97d188…5616
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.20
0xd1186a…7944
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 1.00
0xafce70…31d5
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.80
0x4b9258…f0d1
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 4.00
0xe8d4c1…ea8d
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.60
0x268199…b494
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 4.20
0xca7f2d…ec95
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 2.80
0xe07992…8a0b
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.60
0x11e654…1774
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 5.00
0x11f8f8…eea1
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.80
0xe1fe83…93d5
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.20
0xfae55a…cb29
What price will XRP hit in 2026?: ↑ 3.40
0x226873…66b8
Cluster 2
H100 SXM price up in next week
H100 SXM price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 2.28
KXH100W-26MAY08-2.28
Cluster 3
RTX 5090 price up in next week
RTX 5090 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 0.48
KXRTX5090W-26MAY08-0.48
Cluster 4
H200 price up in next week
H200 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 4.09
KXH200W-26MAY08-4.09
Cluster 5
B200 price up in next week
B200 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 5.03
KXB200W-26MAY08-5.03
Cluster 6
A100 SXM4 price up in next week
A100 SXM4 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 1.14
KXA100W-26MAY08-1.14
What moved the line
- May 2Price to Beat: 2.28↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28↓ 0.60↑25pp29→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Price to Beat: 5.03↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28↓ 0.80↑17pp49→66¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 3.40↑14pp11→25¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.