Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Yunnan Yukun FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Zhejiang Zhiye FC
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$21
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC
Analysis
This contract prices Yunnan Yukun FC's probability of winning at 44%, placing them as the slight favorite over Zhejiang Zhiye FC (30%) in what appears to be a Chinese football match. Market participants are distinguishing between outright victory and goal-margin outcomes: the over 2.5 goals market is priced at 62%, suggesting traders expect a moderately high-scoring contest regardless of winner. Recent volume of $17 is modest, typical for non-major league football fixtures. The probability hinges on team form, head-to-head records, squad availability, and home-field advantage. Contract resolution depends on the match outcome, likely occurring within weeks based on typical league scheduling. The small gap between Yunnan (44%) and Zhejiang (30%) indicates meaningful uncertainty rather than a clear prediction.
- ›Yunnan priced as modest favorite (44% vs. 30%) suggests relatively balanced matchup with modest predictive confidence
- ›Over 2.5 goals at 62% indicates market expectation of three or more total goals despite the defensive capabilities of both sides
- ›Polymarket volume remains low ($17 in 24h) across primary contract, suggesting limited institutional or high-volume trader participation
- ›Score-margin contracts (Yunnan -1.5 at 27%, Zhejiang -2.5 at 11%) show asymmetric confidence in Yunnan winning by narrow rather than decisive margins
- ›Match resolution date and recent fixture history (form, injuries, head-to-head record) are primary drivers of probability movement
What moved the line
- May 2Yunnan Yukun FC↓5pp53→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC)↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC)↓3pp32→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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