SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d1pp · 10h

Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Kataller Toyama - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

41%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

41%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

−1pp

10h ago

24h volume

$0

20 contracts

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 43% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 43% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki” vs “Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Ehime FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki

10 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Ehime FC

10 contracts$0

Analysis

This market reflects a 42% probability that the Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Kataller Toyama match will have more goals than a specified threshold. The probability is moderately below even odds, suggesting the market expects a relatively low-scoring match under typical conditions. Zweigen Kanazawa's recent form and defensive strength appear to be pulling the probability down, while Kataller Toyama's attacking capability could support higher goal totals. The main catalyst is the match itself—scheduled gameplay will directly determine the final goal count and resolve all uncertainty around this outcome. Key supporting markets show broader skepticism toward high scoring, with related contracts suggesting defensive tendencies across comparable fixtures in this competition.

  • Zweigen Kanazawa's recent defensive record and typical goal-conceding rate in J2 League play
  • Kataller Toyama's average goals per match and attacking efficiency in current form
  • The specific goal threshold embedded in the contract (not explicitly stated in available data)
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs if available
  • Market depth and trading volume on related soccer markets, which at $0 24h volume indicates low liquidity and potential uncertainty in pricing

What moved the line

  • May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5)5pp3237¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kataller Toyama (-2.5)4pp3236¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5)4pp3438¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Ehime FC (-1.5)4pp3337¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.