How likely is "Hormuz blockade occurs and persists"?

Our causal model estimates 100% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Fertilizer supply chains are meaningfully disrupted"?

Our causal model estimates 99% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

Home/Theses/Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm Stat

Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm States in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Updated 3h ago·Published Mar 24·active

⚙ Engine outputInvestment thesis produced by the SimpleFunctions Engine, continuously adversarially checked against live market data. Does not represent any political stance of the company.

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 25% probability (started at 22%). Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will there be more than 15 transit calls through t) at 97.5¢, while our thesis implies 10¢ — a +87.5¢ edge. Across 680 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (22h ago): Thesis confidence dropped to 0.20 due to reports of a potential 60-day US-Iran ceasefire and falling energy price expectations, which directly threaten the 'persistent blockade' and 'voter salience' nodes. While the Hormuz blockade is currently a fact, market pricing for gasoline and CPI is softenin

Thesis

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, food inflation hits rural voters. GOP farm state advantage erodes heading into 2026 midterms. Timeline: planting season → harvest → food prices → November ballots.

Confidence

25% ███░░░░░░░

Implied Return

+115.9%

Contracts

680tracked

Track Record

Batting Average

.410

Edges Tracked

680

Avg Movement

+8.0¢

.041 batting average across 680 contracts with positive avg movement. A useful lens — the market is surfacing the right opportunities, execution varies.

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Sep 20

Implied Returns

Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 on Apr 1, 2026?1¢→50¢+4900%

Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 on Apr 1, 2026?1¢→50¢+4900%

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.100?1¢→50¢+4900%

Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 1 on Apr 1, 2026?98¢→50¢+2400%

Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 on Apr 1, 2026?2¢→50¢+2400%

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?98¢→50¢+2400%

Will the silver close price be above 63.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?2¢→50¢+2400%

Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?97¢→50¢+1566.7%

Weekly Analysis

Episode 4·2026-03-25 – 2026-04-01·▼ 0%

Fertilizer thesis dropped sharply from 49% to 21% as supply chains stabilized

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1Hormuz blockade occurs and persists100%██████████

n1.1Iran-linked military escalation triggers blockade100%██████████

n1.2Blockade persists beyond 2 weeks100%██████████

n1.3Insurance and shipping markets react severely96%██████████

n2Fertilizer supply chains are meaningfully disrupted99%██████████

n2.1Hormuz-transiting fertilizer is significant share of US supply96%██████████

n2.2Global price contagion affects US market99%██████████

n2.3No adequate substitution or restocking buffers disruption97%██████████

n3Fertilizer price spike translates to major US farm cost surge97%██████████

n3.1Fertilizer prices rise 50%+ from baseline100%██████████

n3.2Farmers unable to hedge or reduce application95%██████████

n3.3Energy cost co-movement amplifies input costs100%██████████

n4Farm cost surge causes visible food price inflation by fall 202695%██████████

n4.1Crop yields decline or farmer margins compress enough to raise wholesale prices95%██████████

n4.2Food CPI increases notably (>1pp above trend) by Q3 2026100%██████████

n4.3Retail food price pass-through is fast enough for election timing95%██████████

n5Food inflation is salient to rural/farm-state voters and attributed to governing dynamics8%█░░░░░░░░░

n5.1Rural voters prioritize food/farm costs over other issues1%░░░░░░░░░░

n5.2Voters blame the party in power rather than external geopolitics0%░░░░░░░░░░

n5.3Media and political framing connects food prices to GOP governance50%█████░░░░░

n6GOP farm-state advantage materially erodes in 2026 midterms0%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.1GOP competitive margins narrow by 5+ points in farm-state races0%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.2Democrats flip at least one farm-state Senate or gubernatorial seat2%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.3Farm-state erosion is distinguishable from national trends1%░░░░░░░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Drift	Depth
K	Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026?NO	98¢	10¢	+88¢	1¢	+6¢	26K/20K
K	How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?YES	11¢	95¢	+85¢	3¢	-65¢	734.47/95.84
K	Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026?NO	96¢	15¢	+81¢	3¢	+2¢	273.06/4K
P	Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?: October 31YES	11¢	90¢	+79¢	2¢	-64¢	3K/3K
K	Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?YES	15¢	92¢	+77¢	26¢	-60¢	159.51/373.76
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	6¢	80¢	+75¢	7¢	-10¢	2K/228.44
K	How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?YES	6¢	75¢	+70¢	5¢	-33¢	4K/250
K	Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?YES	11¢	80¢	+70¢	15¢	-44¢	258.77/74.82
K	Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?NO	94¢	25¢	+69¢	1¢	—	5K/15K
K	Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026?NO	93¢	25¢	+68¢	1¢	+3¢	2K/5K
P	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?: July 31NO	82¢	15¢	+67¢	2¢	+29¢	1K/808
K	Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?NO	82¢	15¢	+67¢	2¢	+3¢	735.59/4K
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	10¢	75¢	+66¢	5¢	-11¢	632.25/147.66
P	Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?: December 31YES	25¢	90¢	+65¢	2¢	-44¢	12K/596
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	16¢	80¢	+64¢	16¢	-20¢	44.519999999999996/54.61

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Sep 20 00:0725%(-7%)

Thesis confidence dropped to 0.20 due to reports of a potential 60-day US-Iran ceasefire and falling energy price expectations, which directly threaten the 'persistent blockade' and 'voter salience' n

Sep 19 15:0744%(+19%)

Thesis confidence dropped to 0.44 as the core assumption of a persistent Hormuz blockade was invalidated by reports of the waterway reopening. While fertilizer price markers and gas price edges remain

Sep 18 03:0728%(-8%)

Thesis confidence declined to 0.28 due to softening macro-inflationary signals and increasing transit volume indications in the Strait of Hormuz. While the causal path for fertilizer spikes remains st

Sep 17 20:0732%(+3%)

Thesis confidence increased slightly to 0.32, driven by market confirmation of sustained Hormuz transit disruption (now 92-98c for low transit counts). However, cooling core CPI and gas price expectat

Sep 16 16:0725%(-4%)

Thesis confidence dropped from 0.29 to 0.05 as the final links in the causal chain (voter salience and GOP erosion) are being systematically invalidated by cooling inflation data and lower energy cost

Sep 15 17:0825%(-2%)

The thesis remains intact structurally, but confidence is slightly downgraded due to the market-wide collapse in CPI-linked contracts and cooling inflation sentiment, which weakens the causal link bet

Sep 14 07:0725%(-3%)

KILL SIGNAL: A confirmed US-Iran peace deal, naval reopening, and termination of military operations (as reported in sibling signals) fundamentally invalidate the blockade premise (n1). While previous

Sep 13 21:0726%(-2%)

Thesis confidence slightly declined due to market data indicating higher resilience in retail food and energy prices, suggesting the intended political transmission from fertilizer supply costs to rur

Sep 12 23:0825%(-4%)

KILL CONDITION MET: June 2026 CPI data reported a -0.4% MoM decline, fundamentally invalidating the inflation-driven voter erosion thesis. Confidence collapsed to 0.12 as the primary link between farm

Sep 11 23:0728%(-4%)

Thesis confidence remains stable at 0.28. While Hormuz transit activity shows signs of normalization in market pricing, the 'LOCKED' status of upstream nodes (blockade persistence and fertilizer spike

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