Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm States in 2026?
Current Assessment
Our causal model estimates 20% probability. Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls thr) at 91.5¢, while our thesis implies 15¢ — a +76.5¢ edge. Across 214 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.
Latest evaluation (4h ago): The thesis is effectively invalidated as market prices for Hormuz transits and energy costs have collapsed to near-certainty of 'normal' operations, removing the necessary catalyst for farm-state economic disruption.
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, food inflation hits rural voters. GOP farm state advantage erodes heading into 2026 midterms. Timeline: planting season → harvest → food prices → November ballots.
Track Record
.038 batting average across 214 contracts with positive avg movement. A useful lens — the market is surfacing the right opportunities, execution varies.
Confidence Over Time
Implied Returns
Weekly Analysis
Fertilizer thesis dropped sharply from 49% to 21% as supply chains stabilized
Causal Model
Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.
Market Edge Analysis
Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.
| Contract | Market | Model | Edge | Spread | Depth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?NO | 92¢ | 15¢ | +77¢ | 1¢ | 2K/1K |
| K | Will Russia's crude exports for April 2026 be below 4.0 mbpd?YES | 11¢ | 82¢ | +71¢ | 4¢ | 2K/660 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 16¢ | 80¢ | +65¢ | 7¢ | 293/848.08 |
| K | CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES | 8¢ | 65¢ | +57¢ | 6¢ | 825/427 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 6¢ | 62¢ | +56¢ | 6¢ | 1K/141 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 19¢ | 72¢ | +54¢ | 1¢ | 806/902 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 22¢ | 75¢ | +53¢ | 10¢ | 245/300 |
| K | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?NO | 83¢ | 30¢ | +53¢ | 1¢ | 763.54/447.93 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 30¢ | 82¢ | +53¢ | 1¢ | 420/300 |
| P | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30NO | 87¢ | 35¢ | +52¢ | 1¢ | 58K/12K |
| K | CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES | 9¢ | 60¢ | +52¢ | 7¢ | 838/461 |
| K | How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?YES | 24¢ | 75¢ | +51¢ | 34¢ | 57/612.94 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 24¢ | 75¢ | +51¢ | 4¢ | 600/383.24 |
| P | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: December 31NO | 95¢ | 45¢ | +50¢ | 0¢ | 16K/5K |
| K | Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026?NO | 65¢ | 15¢ | +50¢ | 1¢ | 154.55/703.46 |
Recent Evaluations
Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.
The thesis is effectively invalidated as market prices for Hormuz transits and energy costs have collapsed to near-certainty of 'normal' operations, removing the necessary catalyst for farm-state econ
Thesis confidence slightly lower (0.24) following a rural battleground poll showing GOP resilience despite high economic uncertainty, coupled with market signals suggesting Hormuz transit recovery is
Thesis confidence decreased to 0.22 as market signals indicate a return toward maritime normality in the Strait of Hormuz and a collapse in expected energy prices, which decouples fertilizer spikes fr
Strait of Hormuz transit volume has collapsed toward zero, confirming the physical disruption nodes of the thesis, yet confidence remains tempered as energy markets simultaneously price in significant
Strait of Hormuz closure is now a confirmed kinetic event rather than a risk factor, significantly boosting early-chain causal nodes; however, the distal political link (voter erosion) remains highly
**Kill condition triggered: Strait of Hormuz reopened, Geneva talks progressing.** Multiple cross-thesis signals converge on confirmed evidence that: (1) the Strait is physically open for commercial t
Thesis confidence dropped from 0.44 to 0.23 following empirical evidence that the Hormuz blockade is transitioning to a 'high-friction' managed regime rather than a persistent total shutdown. This dec
Thesis confidence rose to 0.52 following confirmed U.S. airstrikes and the transition to a sustained 'cold blockade' in the Strait of Hormuz. While upstream nodes (n1, n2) are now effectively locked a
Data confirms that while shipping transit disruptions are locked as a stable negative factor, the secondary transmission to US rural voter behavior and electoral outcomes is weaker than initially mode
No material change — heartbeat price moves are largely noise with all impacts rated neutral. The most notable signal is gas price markets resolving sharply lower (multiple thresholds collapsing to 1¢)
sf explore fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis