Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm States in 2026?
Current Assessment
Our causal model estimates 26% probability (started at 22%). Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.6) at 7.5¢, while our thesis implies 80¢ — a +72.5¢ edge. Across 245 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.
Latest evaluation (1h ago): The thesis remains largely intact as upstream supply disruption signals (Hormuz traffic volatility) are being absorbed by the market without a clear, definitive break in the supply chain reaching retail fertilizer prices yet. A minor probability adjustment for n3.2 reflects slight observed resilienc
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, food inflation hits rural voters. GOP farm state advantage erodes heading into 2026 midterms. Timeline: planting season → harvest → food prices → November ballots.
Track Record
.043 batting average across 245 contracts with positive avg movement. A useful lens — the market is surfacing the right opportunities, execution varies.
Confidence Over Time
Implied Returns
Weekly Analysis
Fertilizer thesis dropped sharply from 49% to 21% as supply chains stabilized
Causal Model
Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.
Market Edge Analysis
Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.
| Contract | Market | Model | Edge | Spread | Depth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 8¢ | 80¢ | +73¢ | 9¢ | 264/332 |
| K | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?NO | 88¢ | 15¢ | +73¢ | 1¢ | 6K/4K |
| K | Will Russia's crude exports for April 2026 be below 4.0 mbpd?YES | 12¢ | 82¢ | +71¢ | 1¢ | 1K/677.31 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 19¢ | 80¢ | +61¢ | 6¢ | 300/410 |
| K | CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES | 5¢ | 65¢ | +61¢ | 5¢ | 364/465 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 21¢ | 80¢ | +60¢ | 9¢ | 298.58/227 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 20¢ | 75¢ | +55¢ | 10¢ | 205/113 |
| K | CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES | 6¢ | 60¢ | +55¢ | 5¢ | 369/236 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 9¢ | 62¢ | +53¢ | 6¢ | 368/135 |
| P | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30NO | 87¢ | 35¢ | +52¢ | 1¢ | 58K/12K |
| P | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: December 31NO | 95¢ | 45¢ | +50¢ | 0¢ | 16K/5K |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?NO | 84¢ | 35¢ | +49¢ | 9¢ | 137/569.69 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 24¢ | 72¢ | +48¢ | 2¢ | 274/572.4100000000001 |
| K | CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?YES | 7¢ | 55¢ | +48¢ | 6¢ | 412/467 |
| K | Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026?NO | 50¢ | 3¢ | +47¢ | 100¢ | 0/0 |
Recent Evaluations
Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.
The thesis remains largely intact as upstream supply disruption signals (Hormuz traffic volatility) are being absorbed by the market without a clear, definitive break in the supply chain reaching reta
Thesis confidence dropped to 0.22 as market data confirms a sharp decline in fertilizer and energy prices, undermining the core 'economic pain' salience required for GOP erosion. While the Hormuz bloc
No material change to the core thesis. While there is significant noise in the transit call data and energy markets, the fundamental links in the causal chain remain undisturbed. Thesis confidence saw
The thesis is functionally invalidated by the collapse of the blockade premise; IMF PortWatch data shows transit calls have normalized, removing the catalyst for fertilizer supply shocks and the subse
Recent volatility in fertilizer and energy price markets has not fundamentally altered the causal link between the Hormuz blockade and potential midterm voter sentiment, but the thesis remains under p
The thesis is effectively invalidated as market prices for Hormuz transits and energy costs have collapsed to near-certainty of 'normal' operations, removing the necessary catalyst for farm-state econ
Thesis confidence slightly lower (0.24) following a rural battleground poll showing GOP resilience despite high economic uncertainty, coupled with market signals suggesting Hormuz transit recovery is
Thesis confidence decreased to 0.22 as market signals indicate a return toward maritime normality in the Strait of Hormuz and a collapse in expected energy prices, which decouples fertilizer spikes fr
Strait of Hormuz transit volume has collapsed toward zero, confirming the physical disruption nodes of the thesis, yet confidence remains tempered as energy markets simultaneously price in significant
Strait of Hormuz closure is now a confirmed kinetic event rather than a risk factor, significantly boosting early-chain causal nodes; however, the distal political link (voter erosion) remains highly
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