Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm States in 2026?
Current Assessment
Our causal model estimates 25% probability (started at 22%). Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will there be more than 25 transit calls through t) at 84¢, while our thesis implies 3¢ — a +81¢ edge. Across 585 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.
Latest evaluation (17h ago): No material change to the thesis frame. Market signals regarding transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz are volatile but ultimately neutral to the core thesis of structural disruption, while gasoline and CPI fluctuations remain within expected variance for this stage of the cycle.
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, food inflation hits rural voters. GOP farm state advantage erodes heading into 2026 midterms. Timeline: planting season → harvest → food prices → November ballots.
Track Record
.038 batting average across 585 contracts with positive avg movement. A useful lens — the market is surfacing the right opportunities, execution varies.
Confidence Over Time
Implied Returns
Weekly Analysis
Fertilizer thesis dropped sharply from 49% to 21% as supply chains stabilized
Causal Model
Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.
Market Edge Analysis
Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.
| Contract | Market | Model | Edge | Spread | Depth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?NO | 84¢ | 3¢ | +81¢ | 2¢ | 90.92/119.72 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.10?YES | 14¢ | 90¢ | +76¢ | 2¢ | 325/263 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 7¢ | 80¢ | +74¢ | 5¢ | 613.89/1K |
| K | Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?NO | 88¢ | 15¢ | +73¢ | 3¢ | 565.67/779.26 |
| K | Will the FAO Food Price Index for July 2026 be above 136.0?YES | 5¢ | 75¢ | +70¢ | 2¢ | 200/230 |
| K | How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?YES | 26¢ | 95¢ | +70¢ | 11¢ | 750/353.03 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 22¢ | 90¢ | +69¢ | 9¢ | 399.34000000000003/546.38 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 21¢ | 88¢ | +68¢ | 9¢ | 523.6600000000001/424.51 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 8¢ | 75¢ | +68¢ | 7¢ | 733.77/414.33 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 28¢ | 95¢ | +68¢ | 9¢ | 460.28/425 |
| K | Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?NO | 93¢ | 25¢ | +68¢ | 7¢ | 268.6/250 |
| K | Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >86.99 on Nov 3, 2026?YES | 18¢ | 85¢ | +67¢ | 6¢ | 1K/2K |
| P | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?: July 31NO | 82¢ | 15¢ | +67¢ | 2¢ | 1K/808 |
| K | Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 25¢ | 92¢ | +67¢ | 6¢ | 454/257.02 |
| K | Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 24¢ | 90¢ | +67¢ | 1¢ | 166.3/456.03999999999996 |
Recent Evaluations
Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.
No material change to the thesis frame. Market signals regarding transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz are volatile but ultimately neutral to the core thesis of structural disruption, while gasoline a
Thesis confidence decreased from 0.27 to 0.22 following persistent disinflationary signals in core CPI and energy-adjacent markets, which weaken the transmission mechanism from farm-cost surges to vot
The thesis remains stable as market price movements in Hormuz transit calls and food indices align with existing volatility expectations. No structural break has occurred, and the recent price actions
The thesis remains in a refinement phase as recent market data shows significant noise without structural evidence against the core blockade-to-food-inflation link. While some commodity price moves (e
Thesis confidence reduced to 0.22 following market signals that indicate food and core CPI components are cooling faster than expected. While the Hormuz blockade (n1) remains a locked physical reality
The emergence of the Red Sea as a secondary active front increases long-term supply chain risk and geopolitical salience. Thesis confidence rose slightly to 0.28 due to sustained risk factors, despite
Market data shows a cooling trend in near-term CPI expectations and a slight reduction in expected electoral losses for the GOP, causing a minor downward adjustment in thesis confidence. Current marke
Recent data indicating a significant downside surprise in June CPI and broader economic cooling (e.g., lower demand for oil and gas) weigh against the 'sticky food inflation' pillar of the thesis, lea
Recent macroeconomic data, including the June Core CPI print and falling oil/gas futures, indicate a broader disinflationary trend that diminishes the potential for a fertilizer-led food inflation cri
No fundamental shift in the Hormuz blockade thesis; minor probability nudges in voter sentiment nodes based on slight shifts in political and energy market pricing. Confidence increased marginally due
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