How likely is "Hormuz blockade occurs and persists"?

Our causal model estimates 54% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Fertilizer supply chains are meaningfully disrupted"?

Our causal model estimates 85% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

Can a Hormuz Blockade Flip GOP Farm States in 2026?

Updated 2h ago· Published Mar 24active

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 38% probability. Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $110) at 18¢, while our thesis implies 55¢ — a +37¢ edge. Across 18 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (2h ago): No material change. The only event is a minor -3¢ price move on a crude oil contract, which is routine noise and does not meaningfully affect any causal node. Thesis confidence held at 0.38. Track record shows only 11% of edges moving toward thesis, suggesting continued humility about position-takin

Thesis

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, food inflation hits rural voters. GOP farm state advantage erodes heading into 2026 midterms. Timeline: planting season → harvest → food prices → November ballots.

Confidence

38% ████░░░░░░

Implied Return

-2.2%

Contracts

18tracked

Track Record

Hit Rate

11%of edges moved toward thesis

Edges Tracked

Avg Movement

0.0¢

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Mar 24

Implied Returns

What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in March?: $90+74¢→75¢+1.4%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?33.5¢→33.5¢0%

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?: 0-1057¢→57¢0%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $11018¢→18¢0%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $1208.5¢→8.5¢0%

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: March 319.5¢→9.5¢0%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party47.5¢→47.5¢0%

Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party84.5¢→84.5¢0%

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1Hormuz blockade occurs and persists54%█████░░░░░

n1.1Iran-linked military escalation triggers blockade85%█████████░

n1.2Blockade persists beyond 2 weeks75%████████░░

n1.3Insurance and shipping markets react severely85%█████████░

n2Fertilizer supply chains are meaningfully disrupted85%█████████░

n2.1Hormuz-transiting fertilizer is significant share of US supply75%████████░░

n2.2Global price contagion affects US market85%█████████░

n2.3No adequate substitution or restocking buffers disruption75%████████░░

n3Fertilizer price spike translates to major US farm cost surge72%███████░░░

n3.1Fertilizer prices rise 50%+ from baseline70%███████░░░

n3.2Farmers unable to hedge or reduce application70%███████░░░

n3.3Energy cost co-movement amplifies input costs70%███████░░░

n4Farm cost surge causes visible food price inflation by fall 202660%██████░░░░

n4.1Crop yields decline or farmer margins compress enough to raise wholesale prices68%███████░░░

n4.2Food CPI increases notably (>1pp above trend) by Q3 202650%█████░░░░░

n4.3Retail food price pass-through is fast enough for election timing35%████░░░░░░

n5Food inflation is salient to rural/farm-state voters and attributed to governing dynamics45%█████░░░░░

n5.1Rural voters prioritize food/farm costs over other issues35%████░░░░░░

n5.2Voters blame the party in power rather than external geopolitics35%████░░░░░░

n5.3Media and political framing connects food prices to GOP governance30%███░░░░░░░

n6GOP farm-state advantage materially erodes in 2026 midterms10%█░░░░░░░░░

n6.1GOP competitive margins narrow by 5+ points in farm-state races12%█░░░░░░░░░

n6.2Democrats flip at least one farm-state Senate or gubernatorial seat8%█░░░░░░░░░

n6.3Farm-state erosion is distinguishable from national trends15%██░░░░░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Depth (Bid/Ask)
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $110YES	18¢	55¢	+37¢	0¢	315/2K
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $105YES	30¢	60¢	+30¢	0¢	10K/431
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $100YES	45¢	72¢	+28¢	1¢	7K/6K
P	Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?: 20+YES	23¢	50¢	+28¢	3¢	266/228
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $120YES	9¢	35¢	+27¢	1¢	39K/14K
P	US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 30YES	45¢	70¢	+25¢	2¢	9K/949
P	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?NO	34¢	12¢	+22¢	1¢	31K/15K
P	US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: March 31YES	10¢	30¢	+21¢	1¢	26K/19K
P	Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of March?: $84YES	69¢	88¢	+20¢	33¢	26/219
P	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?YES	16¢	35¢	+19¢	2¢	11K/4K
P	Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?: 0-10YES	57¢	75¢	+18¢	2¢	503/807
P	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: April 30YES	18¢	35¢	+17¢	2¢	1K/3K
P	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?: ↑ $130YES	5¢	20¢	+16¢	1¢	65K/15K
P	What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in March?: $90+YES	75¢	90¢	+15¢	2¢	307/367
P	Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic PartyYES	48¢	58¢	+11¢	1¢	15K/50K

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Mar 24 07:0038%(0%)

No material change. The only event is a minor -3¢ price move on a crude oil contract, which is routine noise and does not meaningfully affect any causal node. Thesis confidence held at 0.38. Track rec

Mar 24 06:3138%(+7%)

The blockade is confirmed real and in its third week — this is the most material development and fundamentally validates the thesis's top-level causal chain. Confidence rises from 0.315 to 0.38 as n1

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