Conviction-scored ideas synthesized from 9 signal streams — thesis edges, contagion gaps, cross-venue arbitrage, high-yield screens, regime shifts, legislative catalysts. Grouped by narrative theme.
Active ideas
6
High conviction
2
Themes
3
Refreshed
06:38 UTC
17h ago
Bitcoin prediction markets show a clear regime shift at the $65,500 strike, where taker flow flips from neutral to aggressive buying. The curve implies ~62c probability at $62k but only 14c at $65.5k — a 48-cent compression in just $3,500 of spot upside that is statistically inconsistent with a log-normal price distribution. This creates a layered sell-the-tail / buy-the-base structure with a 4-day resolution catalyst.
The California 2026 governor race shows two massive thesis-vs-market gaps: Becerra at 93c (thesis says 28c, E1) and Kounalakis at 50c (thesis says 1c, E3) together imply the field is dramatically mispriced against the Mahan-led alternative coalition thesis. These are the two largest effective edges in the political category (30c and 23c respectively), both pointing in the NO direction. The mail-ballot dynamics and structural underpricing of Mahan at 15c create a rare multi-leg opportunity in a single race.
Congressional override and Insurrection Act markets show a wide dispersion between short-dated and long-dated probabilities that implies the market is not properly term-structuring executive risk. L1 (override before 2027) at 10c with 1,906% implied yield versus L2 (override ever) at 29c creates a 19c term-structure gap — the short-dated version should be lower, but the IY signal on L1 is extreme. Meanwhile L5 (Insurrection Act, 21c, 797% IY) vs L6 (44c, 50% IY) flags a cross-contract inconsistency on the same underlying event. These are contrarian fades of the 'Trump is unchecked' consensus.
R1 prices Bitcoin above $59,500 on Jul 17 at 87c, while R3 prices $62k+ at 62c — a 25c gap for only $2,500 of additional upside. The regime shift data shows taker flow flipping neutral at R4 ($65.5k, 14c), confirming the market sees a tight range. Buy R1 at 87c as a high-conviction near-certainty with 4-day resolution and ~15c of implied yield on a near-binary outcome.
R4 prices Bitcoin above $65,500 at 14c on Jul 17 — but the regime shift score of 0.636 flags aggressive taker buying into this strike against a neutral prior. The highlights note bullish positioning 'above $65,000' yet the spot curve from R1-R3 implies a mode around $61-63k. Sell R4 at 14c (buy NO): 86c payout in 4 days implies ~2,300% annualized yield. R5 at 10c and R6 at 3c confirm the tail is thin.
E1 prices Xavier Becerra winning California governor at 93c, while the thesis-implied fair value is just 28c — a 65c raw edge and 30c effective edge, the single largest edge in the entire dataset. The thesis cites mail-ballot structural factors and Mahan underpricing at 15c as the core mechanism. At 93c, the market offers 7c payout on NO with a thesis-implied 72c probability of NO resolution. Risk/reward on sell is approximately 10:1 in thesis terms. Buy NO on E1.
E3 prices Eleni Kounalakis winning California governor at 50c, but the thesis implies just 1c — a 49c raw edge (23c effective). This is the starkest example of market consensus running directly against the underlying thesis model. Combined with the Becerra mispricing in E1, the California race appears to be a two-front overpricing of establishment candidates. Selling E3 at 50c offers near-even odds on a thesis that says the true probability is essentially zero. Buy NO on E3.
L1 prices a Congressional override of Trump's veto before 2027 at just 10c, generating a 1,906% implied annualized yield — the highest IY among legislative catalysts with a defined price. The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats at 81c to win the House (per highlights), which is the structural prerequisite for any override. If Democrats retake the House in November, the December 2026 window for an override attempt becomes non-trivial. The market at 10c implies ~0% conditional probability of action post-midterms. Buy YES on L1 as a lottery ticket with outsized IY.
L6 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 44c while L5 prices the same underlying event at 21c — a 23c cross-contract gap on what appears to be the same question at different venues (50% IY vs 797% IY respectively). This is a structural arb signal: sell L6 at 44c (buy NO) and optionally buy L5 at 21c. The highlights show no active domestic unrest scenario, and the base rate for Insurrection Act use in modern US history is near zero. The 23c gap is the edge; the thesis is mean-reversion to the lower-probability contract. Buy NO on L6.
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