Conviction-scored ideas synthesized from 9 signal streams — thesis edges, contagion gaps, cross-venue arbitrage, high-yield screens, regime shifts, legislative catalysts. Grouped by narrative theme.
Active ideas
6
High conviction
2
Themes
3
Refreshed
06:36 UTC
228h ago
Bitcoin is up 6.9% and Ethereum 8% today on what appears to be ETF inflow or short-squeeze dynamics, yet prediction markets are pricing BTC at $100k by year-end at only 39c and the November $100k target at just 26c. Today's price action creates a meaningful contagion lag between spot crypto momentum and binary contract repricing. The edge is in buying the underpriced year-end targets before prediction market liquidity catches up to the spot move.
Democrats are priced at 91c to retake the House and 64c to hold or gain the Senate, yet Georgia's gubernatorial race (R1) just shifted from neutral to taker at 48c — a regime-shift signal in a key bellwether state. The divergence between the macro-level Senate 64c and individual battleground pricing creates contagion lag opportunities, particularly in states where down-ballot dynamics are repricing faster than the top-line Senate number. One contrarian idea targets the overpriced House Democrat odds.
Several markets with 3-day expiry (tau=3) are pricing low-probability events at 6-11c with 100,000 IY, representing pure time-premium that decays to zero unless a specific binary catalyst fires within 72 hours. With no publicly available news flow supporting these outcomes, systematic selling of near-expiry tail contracts captures structural overpricing from retail speculation on long-shot events. The contrarian angle: buy the one near-expiry market with genuine binary catalyst ambiguity.
With BTC up 6.9% today to $45.96, the year-end $100k target implies roughly a 2.2x from current levels — yet the market prices this at only 39c. The November $100k market is at 26c, creating a 13c term-structure gap that makes the December contract relatively cheap. The $87k Jan 1 2027 market at 11c anchors the downside scenario, implying the market sees a wide distribution. At 39c with crypto in confirmed breakout mode and ETF inflows as catalyst, this is a high-conviction momentum-plus-thesis play. Buy YES targeting 60c+ by November.
Y4 prices a Glean IPO before October 1, 2026 at 10c with only 3 days to expiry (tau=3) — implying a 100,000 IY but a CRI of 9.0x. With today being September 28, there is zero publicly available evidence of an imminent Glean IPO filing or listing. This is a pure time-decay short: 10c of premium with 3 days to expiry and no catalytic news flow. Sell YES at 10c, collect near-full premium on October 1 resolution. Same logic applies to Y8 (Freddie Mac IPO before Oct 1 at 6c).
R1 just registered a regime shift from neutral to taker at 48c for a Republican win in the Georgia governor's race, with a regime score of 0.625 — the highest political regime signal in the dataset. At 48c, the market is treating this as a pure coin-flip despite the regime-shift signal indicating smart-money accumulation. Georgia has trended Republican in statewide races, and a Republican governor win would have downstream implications for Senate battleground pricing. Buy R1 YES at 48c targeting 65c.
L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at only 9c with an implied yield of 3,870 — the highest IY in the legislative complex by a wide margin. With midterm elections shifting the House composition potentially toward Democrats (priced at 91c), a two-thirds majority scenario becomes structurally more plausible in a lame-duck period. L2 prices the same event ever happening at 37c, creating a 28c intra-instrument gap between the time-bounded and open-ended versions. Buy L1 YES at 9c as a high-convexity political hedge.
Y2 prices María Corina Machado visiting Venezuela before October 1 at 8c with tau=3 days and CRI of 11.5x. There is no current diplomatic or political news indicating an imminent safe-passage agreement that would enable this visit. At 8c with 72 hours to expiry, this is 8c of premium decaying to zero. Similarly Y5 (Anthropic personal agent before Oct 1 at 6c, CRI 15.7x) and Y7 (legislation at 7c, CRI 13.3x) represent the same pattern. Sell Y2 YES at 8c for near-certain 8c profit.
L5 prices Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 15c with an IY of 2,169 — a 14.5x convexity payoff on a tail risk that has been discussed repeatedly in context of domestic unrest scenarios. With midterm election volatility ahead and the legislative complex showing elevated regime-shift activity (R1 taker signal, L1 high IY), this is the cheapest institutional hedge in the policy complex. L6 prices the same event at 41c on a different venue/resolution mechanism, creating a 26c cross-instrument gap. Buy L5 YES at 15c as portfolio hedge against political tail risk.
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