Conviction-scored ideas synthesized from 9 signal streams — thesis edges, contagion gaps, cross-venue arbitrage, high-yield screens, regime shifts, legislative catalysts. Grouped by narrative theme.
Active ideas
9
High conviction
3
Themes
4
Refreshed
06:36 UTC
11h ago
Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.
A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.
Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.
All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts.
The July 31 US-Iran peace deal contract jumped 15c to 54c while Strait of Hormuz normal-traffic by end-June sits at just 28c — a 26c contagion gap. R2 is already shifting regime from neutral to taker, confirming momentum. The diplomatic-meeting-by-June-30 contract at 64c for blockade lift further anchors the bull case. Buy R2 before the traffic contract catches up to deal odds.
WTI crude falling to $80 by end of June is priced at 63c on R8, which is transitioning from taker to neutral — a regime exhaustion signal. Meanwhile the $95 May contract surged 33c to 72c on Iran détente news, confirming the directional shift. The $110 bull contract crashed 22c to 38c, validating the bearish supply narrative. Fade the crude bull case with R8 as the regime shift completes.
R6 shows gold at $4,650 in May 2026 priced at 56c, shifting to taker regime with score 0.625 — momentum is accelerating. Iran détente reduces safe-haven demand but Fed leadership instability (Powell exit at 95c) and dollar uncertainty sustain gold's bid. The 56c price at taker-regime entry offers a 44c upside with a defined May catalyst window. Buy the regime shift in R6 as competing macro forces keep gold elevated.
X1 on Kalshi prices the US National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027 at 19c while X2 on Polymarket prices the identical contract at 31c — a 12c gap at 0.95 confidence. This is the highest-confidence cross-venue arb in the dataset, well above the 5c signal threshold. Buy X1 on Kalshi, sell X2 on Polymarket simultaneously to lock in the 12c spread. Risk is execution timing and venue liquidity but confidence is near-maximum.
R3 shows Satoshi-moves-Bitcoin-in-2026 at 8c, transitioning from maker to neutral — liquidity is withdrawing, suggesting the 8c price is about to drift. MicroStrategy sell probabilities have been whipsawed (crashed 14c to 21c then surged 11c to 40c), but the Satoshi dormancy thesis is structurally independent and more stable. At 8c with a maker-to-neutral regime shift, the contract is mispriced low given the historical 17-year dormancy baseline. Buy the NO at 92c implied.
L1 offers 1477% implied yield at 10c for a Congress veto override before 2027 — the highest IY in the legislative dataset by a factor of 10x. Powell's forced exit at 95c probability signals executive dominance, making a successful congressional override structurally unlikely, but the yield compensates massively for the tail risk. Pair with L2 at 27c (101% IY) as a hedge: buy L1 for yield, hold L2 as the longer-dated probability anchor. Net carry on the pair is extraordinary given the policy backdrop.
L5 prices Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 20c with 657% implied yield — a fat-tailed policy risk that is systematically underpriced given the Powell exit signal and executive power consolidation narrative. L6 at 58c (27% IY) represents the longer-dated version, confirming markets do assign meaningful probability over a full term. The 38c gap between L5 and L6 implies near-term invocation is discounted, but the IY on L5 makes it a high-return carry position. Buy L5 as a leveraged policy hedge against executive escalation.
C1 and C3 show Democratic House race triggers in CA-17 and CA-44 moving +78c delta while FL-23 Democratic contract sits at 82c — a -58c contagion gap. The uniform gap across 8 contract pairs (C1 through C8) at identical -58c magnitude signals a structural pricing inefficiency rather than noise. FL-23 at 82c should be re-rated toward trigger-implied fair value as election cycle information propagates. Buy the lagging FL-23 Democratic contract before contagion closes the gap.
C2, C4, C6, and C8 show AR-03 Republican contract at 83c while trigger contracts moved +78c delta — but AR-03 is a deep-red incumbent seat that arguably should be above 90c, making the 83c price a sell if the trigger signal is read as bearish for Republicans nationally. The 58c gap is symmetric: if Democratic triggers are rising, Republican laggards may be over-priced on relative terms. Sell AR-03 Republican at 83c as a pairs hedge against the Democratic FL-23 long, capturing the spread compression from both sides.
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