Trade Ideas

C1 and C3 show a 107-point and 103-point contagion gap respectively: trigger contracts repriced +82 and +71 delta while lagging contracts sit at 16c. This is the largest gap signal in today's dataset and squarely meets our Signal Priority 2 threshold — the lag IS the edge. The Databricks IPO signal (43-point crash in 'No IPO' odds) independently confirms AI compute demand is being re-rated upward. At 16c on the laggard, risk/reward is asymmetric.

C2 and C5 show the mirror trade: trigger contracts repriced -82 and -63 delta while lagging 'above' contracts remain at 84c — a -107 and -101 point gap respectively. The asymmetry is identical in magnitude to the buy side. Sam Altman's CNBC appearance (C5 trigger, -63 delta) has already catalyzed the bearish repricing on one input contract; the 84c laggard has not followed. Selling at 84c against a -107 contagion signal offers the same structural edge as the long side.

R4 shows a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz weekly transits above 150 calls, currently priced at 60c with a score of 0.625. The oil +4% move today is inconsistent with the market pricing a 60% probability of normal transit volumes through July 12 — if disruption is priced in oil, it should be priced here too. The contagion from energy markets to Hormuz contracts has not occurred. Selling the 60c 'above 150 transits' contract is a direct hedge against the oil spike thesis.

Y1 prices DOGE above $0.075 on July 10 at just 8c with an extraordinary implied yield of 100,000 IY in 2 days — the highest absolute IY in our entire dataset by a factor of 20x. This is a pure yield extraction trade: at 8c with binary resolution in 48 hours, even a 10-15% probability of resolution generates significant risk-adjusted return. Current DOGE spot would need to sustain a level already near current trading ranges. The 8c entry is the hook — this is a lottery-ticket size position with asymmetric payout.

L5 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 21c on one venue while L6 prices the same event at 44c — a 23-point cross-venue gap that exceeds our 5c Signal Priority 1 threshold by 4.6x. Both contracts have positive IY (779 and 50 respectively). The structural explanation for the gap is liquidity differential, not information — L6's 44c is closer to fair value given the current political environment. Buy L5 at 21c, effectively capturing 23c of arb premium on identical binary outcomes.

L1 prices Congress overriding a Trump veto before 2027 at just 10c with an IY of 1,863 — a rich yield on what is arguably a non-trivial political tail. L2 prices the same event on an open-ended basis at 29c, creating a 19c time-premium gap for the pre-2027 version. With Democrats at 82c to retake the House (per highlights) and the Senate a coin-flip, the procedural conditions for an override are more plausible than 10c implies. The 1,863 IY sweetens the entry significantly.