How likely is "Stagflation materializes in US economy"?

Our causal model estimates 30% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Trump actively undermines Powell before term expiration"?

Our causal model estimates 60% probability for this factor. This is driven by 4 sub-factors.

How likely is "Kevin Warsh is nominated and confirmed as next Fed Chair"?

Our causal model estimates 65% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Political dynamics dominate rate decisions over data"?

Our causal model estimates 38% probability for this factor. This is driven by 4 sub-factors.

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Can Political Pressure Force the Fed Into Stagflation?

Updated 5m ago· Published Mar 24active

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 40% probability. Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?: Kevin Warsh) at 94.5¢, while our thesis implies 70¢ — a +24.5¢ edge. Across 15 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (19m ago): The single most important development is Powell's explicit confirmation that a DOJ investigation is keeping him at the Fed past his term — this directly validates n2.1 and n2.3, the succession-lock mechanism central to the thesis. However, Powell's dismissal of stagflation concerns modestly weakens

Thesis

Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump investigates Powell via DOJ while nominating Warsh. The power struggle between Trump-Powell-Warsh matters more for rate decisions than CPI prints. Fed credibility erodes.

Confidence

40% ████░░░░░░

Implied Return

+1.8%

Contracts

15tracked

Track Record

Hit Rate

33%of edges moved toward thesis

Edges Tracked

Avg Movement

0.0¢

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Mar 24

Implied Returns

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%2.55¢→3¢+17.6%

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran Ceasefire52¢→56¢+7.7%

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?2.35¢→2.5¢+6.4%

Fed Decision in June?: 25 bps increase5.65¢→6¢+6.2%

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?: Kevin Warsh94.75¢→94.5¢+4.8%

Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase3.35¢→3.5¢+4.5%

Fed rate hike in 2026?19.5¢→19.5¢0%

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?: 4+21¢→21¢0%

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1Stagflation materializes in US economy30%███░░░░░░░

n1.1Inflation remains persistently elevated38%████░░░░░░

n1.2Labor market deteriorates meaningfully30%███░░░░░░░

n1.3GDP growth stalls or turns negative30%███░░░░░░░

n2Trump actively undermines Powell before term expiration60%██████░░░░

n2.1DOJ opens formal investigation of Powell45%█████░░░░░

n2.2Trump attempts to fire or force Powell's resignation10%█░░░░░░░░░

n2.3Powell remains as Chair until Warsh is confirmed90%█████████░

n2.4Trump's rhetoric alone moves markets65%███████░░░

n3Kevin Warsh is nominated and confirmed as next Fed Chair65%███████░░░

n3.1Trump formally nominates Warsh95%██████████

n3.2Senate confirms Warsh70%███████░░░

n3.3Warsh signals dovish shift or Trump alignment30%███░░░░░░░

n4Political dynamics dominate rate decisions over data38%████░░░░░░

n4.1Fed holds rates despite data warranting a cut38%████░░░░░░

n4.2Fed cuts rates despite data warranting a hold15%██░░░░░░░░

n4.3FOMC dissents increase significantly30%███░░░░░░░

n4.4Fed funds futures diverge from dot plot40%████░░░░░░

n5Fed credibility measurably erodes45%█████░░░░░

n5.1Long-term inflation expectations become unanchored25%███░░░░░░░

n5.2Term premium rises sharply30%███░░░░░░░

n5.3US dollar weakens despite high rates25%███░░░░░░░

n5.4Foreign central banks reduce Treasury holdings20%██░░░░░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Depth (Bid/Ask)
P	Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?: Kevin WarshNO	95¢	70¢	+25¢	1¢	62K/5K
P	Fed rate cut by...?: December MeetingNO	65¢	45¢	+20¢	3¢	2K/519
P	Fed rate cut by...?: September MeetingNO	48¢	30¢	+18¢	18¢	52/29
P	Fed rate hike in 2026?YES	20¢	35¢	+16¢	1¢	44K/29K
P	How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?: 4+YES	21¢	35¢	+14¢	30¢	60/40
P	What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran CeasefireYES	56¢	70¢	+14¢	2¢	90/594
P	Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic PartyYES	48¢	60¢	+13¢	1¢	17K/95K
P	How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)YES	30¢	42¢	+12¢	0¢	256/273
P	What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%YES	2¢	12¢	+10¢	0¢	2K/65
P	Fed Decision in June?: 25 bps increaseYES	6¢	14¢	+8¢	0¢	741/777
P	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?YES	3¢	10¢	+8¢	1¢	633/2K
P	What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%YES	9¢	16¢	+8¢	1¢	978/309
P	What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%YES	3¢	10¢	+7¢	0¢	10K/212
P	Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increaseYES	4¢	10¢	+7¢	1¢	36K/31K
P	Fed rate cut by...?: April MeetingNO	2¢	1¢	+1¢	—	—

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Mar 24 09:3140%(+2%)

The single most important development is Powell's explicit confirmation that a DOJ investigation is keeping him at the Fed past his term — this directly validates n2.1 and n2.3, the succession-lock me

Mar 24 07:3138%(0%)

Powell's public confirmation that he will remain until Warsh is confirmed is a modest upgrade to n2.3 (already high at 0.78), but provides no new information on the broader thesis drivers — stagflatio

Mar 24 06:4738%(+5%)

The two most significant thesis developments have now both confirmed: Trump formally nominated Warsh as Fed Chair AND the DOJ criminal investigation of Powell is active and generating institutional ba

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