Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
Published Mar 14Updated 31m agoactive
Confidence
95% ██████████Implied Return
-8.8%since Mar 14Win Rate
25%(4W 9L)Confidence Over Time
Mar 14Mar 15
Implied Returns
Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?5¢→5.5¢+10%
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?52.5¢→55.5¢+5.7%
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?45.5¢→47.5¢+4.4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?23.8¢→24.55¢+3.2%
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?49.5¢→49.5¢0%
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?14.5¢→14.5¢0%
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?65.5¢→65.5¢0%
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?63¢→62.5¢-0.8%
Causal Tree
n1US-Iran military conflict occurs and persists99%██████████
n1.1US initiates kinetic military action against Iran by end of 202599%██████████
n1.2Iran retaliates in ways that sustain the conflict99%██████████
n1.3Conflict lasts at least 8 weeks99%██████████
n2Trump is dispositionally unable to de-escalate97%██████████
n2.1Trump frames conflict in zero-sum terms publicly99%██████████
n2.2Hawkish advisors dominate decision-making93%█████████░
n2.3Historical precedent: Trump has de-escalated before18%██░░░░░░░░
n2.4Domestic political incentives favor continued escalation42%████░░░░░░
n3Prolonged Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated99%██████████
n3.1Strait of Hormuz disruption or credible threat97%██████████
n3.2Iranian oil exports drop significantly99%██████████
n3.3OPEC+ does not offset supply losses63%██████░░░░
n4Elevated oil prices increase US recession probability97%██████████
n4.1Oil above $100 for 3+ months triggers consumer pullback96%██████████
n4.2Fed faces stagflation dilemma96%██████████
n4.3Baseline recession risk is already elevated96%██████████
n5War and recession benefit Democrats in 2026 midterms97%██████████
n5.1Public turns against Iran war within 6 months98%██████████
n5.2Economic conditions are the primary midterm driver98%██████████
n5.3Democrats gain net House seats in 202694%█████████░
n5.4Democrats gain net Senate seats in 202673%███████░░░
Top Edges
| Market | Mkt | Thesis | Edge | Spread | Liq |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40?YES | 17.5¢ | 50¢ | +32.5 | 3¢ | medium |
| Will there be a recession in 2026?YES | 29.5¢ | 55¢ | +25.5 | 1¢ | high |
| US recession by end of 2026?YES | 31.5¢ | 55¢ | +23.5 | — | ? |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?YES | 16.5¢ | 40¢ | +23.5 | 1¢ | high |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 55.5¢ | 72¢ | +16.5 | 3¢ | medium |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 47.5¢ | 62¢ | +14.5 | 3¢ | medium |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 37.5¢ | 50¢ | +12.5 | 1¢ | medium |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?YES | 24.55¢ | 35¢ | +10.45 | — | ? |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $160.01 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 32.5¢ | 42¢ | +9.5 | 3¢ | medium |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?YES | 62.5¢ | 72¢ | +9.5 | 1¢ | medium |
| Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?YES | 5.5¢ | 15¢ | +9.5 | 1¢ | high |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?YES | 19.5¢ | 28¢ | +8.5 | 1¢ | high |
| Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?YES | 49.5¢ | 58¢ | +8.5 | 1¢ | high |
| Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?NO | 14.5¢ | 6¢ | +8.5 | 1¢ | high |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?YES | 65.5¢ | 72¢ | +6.5 | 5¢ | medium |
Evaluation Timeline
Mar 15 21:1795%(0%)The only recent event is a minor -4 cent price move in the gas price above $4.40
Mar 15 21:0195%(0%)The two price moves are minor market microstructure fluctuations in gas price pr
Mar 15 20:4595%(0%)The NYT 'Midterms Begin During War' headline is a mild confirmatory signal for t
Mar 15 20:3095%(0%)The sole incoming event is a neutral-impact opinion/analysis piece from The Disp
Mar 15 20:0195%(0%)The two recent events are minor heartbeat price moves in Kalshi prediction marke
Mar 15 19:4695%(0%)Both events are routine market price movements flagged as neutral impact. The WT
Mar 15 19:3095%(0%)Two minor market price moves with no open positions to manage. The WTI $150 cont
Mar 15 19:1595%(0%)Three events broadly confirm the thesis. The NYT article is significant qualitat
Mar 15 19:0295%(0%)The only event is a small +3¢ price move on the WTI $135 max price contract (54→
Mar 15 18:4695%(0%)Three minor events: (1) An academic article confirming the economic-midterm rela
Mar 15 18:3095%(0%)The news that midterm primaries are launching under a wartime backdrop is broadl
Mar 15 18:1695%(0%)Three events collectively reinforce the core thesis. Oil crossing $100/barrel ha
Mar 15 18:0395%(0%)Three minor price movements in oil and gas prediction markets: WTI $135 contract
Mar 15 17:4595%(-1%)A minor +3 cent price move on the KXAAAGASM-26MAR31-4.50 gas prices contract red
Mar 15 17:1596%(-1%)A minor +3.5¢ price move on the Kalshi gas price above $4.50 contract (20.5→24.0
Mar 15 17:0197%(0%)Three recent events are broadly consistent with the existing thesis. Oil prices
Mar 15 16:3197%(0%)The only event is a minor 3.5¢ price decline in the Kalshi average gas prices >$
Mar 15 16:1697%(0%)Recent news confirms the thesis is playing out as expected: US crude has risen a
Mar 15 16:0097%(0%)Three minor data points came in, all broadly consistent with the existing thesis
Mar 15 15:4597%(0%)The only event is a minor 4.5¢ price decline in the WTI $135 market (51.5→47.0),
Track this thesis:
$ npm install -g @spfunctions/cli
$ sf explore iran-war
Equal-weight implied returns, no position sizing. Not financial advice.