Fif Ire Qat 05 28 More Markets
event base · fif-ire-qat-05-28-more-markets
Outcome probabilities
11 contracts at one resolution date
Analysis
The Fif Ire Qat 05 28 More Markets slate has 11 mutually-exclusive contracts, all resolving on a single date. The current top-probability outcome is O/U 0.5 at 100.0%.
A bespoke narrative analysis is generated by an LLM on a 24h cron. If this paragraph is showing instead, the slate has either just appeared in the index or has not yet been queued.
Constituent markets
11 polymarket contracts
| Market | Tenor | P(YES) | Vol 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: O/U 0.5 | 7mo | 100.0% | $6.0K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: Qatar (-1.5) | 7mo | 0.0% | $4.5K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: O/U 5.5 | 7mo | 0.0% | $53.2K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: O/U 2.5 | 7mo | 0.0% | $34.8K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: Both Teams to Score | 7mo | 0.0% | $21.6K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: Qatar (-2.5) | 7mo | 0.0% | $154 |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: Republic of Ireland (-1.5) | 7mo | 0.0% | $11.6K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: Republic of Ireland (-2.5) | 7mo | 0.0% | $1.5K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: O/U 4.5 | 7mo | 0.0% | $10.1K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: O/U 3.5 | 7mo | 0.0% | $16.1K |
| Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets: O/U 1.5 | 7mo | 0.0% | $34.9K |
Related event families
How to read this page
An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.
Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (fif-ire-qat-05-28-more-markets on polymarket). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.