What Price Will Ethereum Hit in
event base · what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in
Outcome probabilities
17 contracts at one resolution date
Analysis
The What Price Will Ethereum Hit in slate has 17 mutually-exclusive contracts, all resolving on a single date. The current top-probability outcome is ↓ 1,800 at 2.0%.
A bespoke narrative analysis is generated by an LLM on a 24h cron. If this paragraph is showing instead, the slate has either just appeared in the index or has not yet been queued.
Constituent markets
17 polymarket contracts
| Market | Tenor | P(YES) | Vol 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 1,800 | 3d | 2.0% | $112.8K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 1,600 | 3d | 1.0% | $23.8K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 1,200 | 3d | 0.0% | $17.9K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 3,200 | 3d | 0.0% | $6.5K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 1,400 | 3d | 0.0% | $61.7K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 3,400 | 3d | 0.0% | $5.1K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 600 | 3d | 0.0% | $13 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 2,600 | 3d | 0.0% | $63.7K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 5,000 | 3d | 0.0% | $25.0K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 2,800 | 3d | 0.0% | $39.1K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 3,800 | 3d | 0.0% | $27.0K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 4,000 | 3d | 0.0% | $0 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 400 | 3d | 0.0% | $323 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 1,000 | 3d | 0.0% | $6 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 3,600 | 3d | 0.0% | $9 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↑ 3,000 | 3d | 0.0% | $22.3K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in May?: ↓ 800 | 3d | 0.0% | $574 |
Related event families
How to read this page
An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.
Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in on polymarket). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.