SimpleFunctions
Hot

other · captured 2026-06-15 · with live markets

Georgia

state of the United States of America

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 15 Jun 2026Methodology

Wikidata Q1428

Velocity· first seen 2026-06-15

Why now

President Trump has endorsed Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate runoff, according to reporting from The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Al Jazeera. This endorsement comes at a critical moment in Georgia's political landscape, a state that has become a focal point for national elections. Trump's backing could significantly influence voter behavior and candidate momentum in what is shaping up to be a consequential matchup for both state and national politics.

Live prediction markets

3 events of 5

Georgia's Republican Senate dynamics are reflected in prediction markets: Mike Collins Republican nomination odds at 98¢ (Kalshi, $63,818 24h volume) versus Republicans winning the general Senate race at 17¢ (Kalski, $6,720 24h volume), highlighting a significant divergence between primary viability and general election competitiveness.

Top news

Cross-references

What to watch

Mike Collins faces the runoff challenge with Trump's endorsement now in play. Prediction markets currently price Collins's Republican Senate nomination at 98¢ on Kalshi, reflecting high confidence in his pathway. Monitor voting patterns through the runoff election date, track Collins's campaign spending and polling movements, and watch whether this endorsement translates to increased voter turnout or shifts in the broader Georgia Republican primary dynamics.

Tracked since

2026-06-15

Latest snapshot: 2026-06-15

1 observation from trends_us

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.