Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Insurance general election election in the first round
Leader sits at 94% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Commissioner of Agriculture
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Senate
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
436 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Attorney General general election election in the first round?: Attorney General
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-AG
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia State School Superintendent general election election in the first round?: State Superintendent of Schools
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SUP
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State general election election in the first round?: Secretary of State
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SOS
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election election in the first round?: Senate
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SEN
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor general election election in the first round?: Lieutenant Governor
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-LTGOV
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election election in the first round?: Governor
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-GOV
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Agriculture general election election in the first round?: Commissioner of Agriculture
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-COM
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Labor general election election in the first round?: Commissioner of Labor
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-COL
Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Insurance general election election in the first round?: Commissioner of Insurance
KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-COI
Analysis
This market estimates an 83% probability that Georgia's Commissioner of Insurance race will produce a winner in the general election without requiring a runoff. Georgia law typically mandates runoffs when no candidate exceeds 50% of votes. The high probability reflects expectations that the leading candidate will likely surpass that threshold outright. Comparable statewide races show similar runoff avoidance rates: the gubernatorial race trades at 75%, while Labor and Agriculture Commissioner races each sit at 80%. The outcome depends on candidate field size, voter turnout patterns, and vote consolidation around frontrunners. The general election on November 4, 2026, will definitively resolve whether a runoff becomes necessary, making it the critical date for market settlement.
- ›Field size and fragmentation: Fewer candidates increase the probability of someone exceeding 50%; additional third-party or write-in candidacies reduce it
- ›Turnout relative to primary: Lower general election participation makes 50% thresholds easier to clear; higher turnout can fragment the vote
- ›Geographic concentration: Vote clustering around a single candidate's base increases first-round victory probability
- ›Comparison to other 2026 Georgia races: Labor (80%) and Agriculture (83%) show similar expectations; Attorney General (78%) suggests runoff risk varies by office
- ›Campaign dynamics and late shifts: Unexpected endorsements, campaign momentum, or late-breaking controversies between now and November could alter vote distribution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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