Will Buddy Carter be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
178 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?: Mike Collins
KXSENATEGAR-26-MCOL
Cluster 2
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?: Derek Dooley
KXSENATEGAR-26-DDOO
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Buddy Carter, currently a U.S. Representative from Georgia, will win the Republican nomination for Georgia's U.S. Senate seat. At 33%, the market suggests meaningful uncertainty about his path to nomination. The probability reflects factors such as Carter's current position and name recognition against potential primary competition, fundraising capacity, and endorsements from established party figures. A key driver of this probability is the composition of the Republican primary field—whether other notable candidates enter or drop out. The primary election itself, scheduled for 2026, will be the critical event that resolves this market. Until then, changes in polling, endorsements from party leadership, and campaign financial disclosures could significantly shift expectations about Carter's viability as a nominee.
- ›Buddy Carter's current standing in Republican primary polling relative to other potential candidates for Georgia's Senate seat
- ›The timing and participation decisions of other notable Republican figures in Georgia considering Senate runs
- ›Carter's fundraising totals and donor base compared to competing candidates
- ›Endorsements from Georgia Republican leadership, including figures like Governor Brian Kemp or outgoing/current U.S. Senators
- ›Early primary election results or proxy contests that signal candidate viability in Georgia's Republican electorate
What moved the line
- May 6Mike Collins↑4pp84→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Derek Dooley↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
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- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.