Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$917
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
140 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary
Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary?: Tim Fleming
KXGASOSR-26-TFLE
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that an unnamed candidate wins the Republican primary for Georgia Secretary of State in 2026. The 35% current level suggests a competitive race with multiple viable candidates, though the wide gap between Kalshi and Polymarket assessments (33% vs 79%) indicates significant market disagreement about which candidate or outcome this refers to. Movement in this probability would depend on candidate announcements, fundraising reports, and polling data as the primary approaches. The race will be resolved when Georgia holds its Republican primary election, currently scheduled for late spring or early summer 2026. Factors affecting the outcome include incumbent positioning, endorsements from state party leadership, voter turnout patterns in Republican-leaning areas, and how candidates differentiate themselves on election integrity issues given Georgia's profile in national politics.
- ›Unclear candidate identification in market contracts creates ambiguity about what specific outcome drives the 35% probability
- ›Significant 46-percentage-point divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders on different platforms are pricing fundamentally different scenarios or have different information
- ›Georgia Secretary of State races hinge partly on positioning relative to 2020 election controversies, which could influence primary voters differently than in other states
- ›Candidate fundraising and field organization reports, typically released quarterly, will provide concrete data on viable contenders
- ›Primary timing and potential runoff rules under Georgia law may affect the probability threshold and which candidate benefits most from fractured support
What moved the line
- Jun 17Tim Fleming↑9pp91→100¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Tim Fleming↑4pp87→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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