The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Jordan Bardella | 28.5% |
Édouard Philippe | 14.5% |
Marine Le Pen | 10.5% |
9.5% |
Dominique de Villepin | 6.5% |
Bruno Retailleau | 4.3% |
Gabriel Attal | 3.8% |
Sébastien Lecornu | 3.3% |
François Hollande | 2.6% |
Sarah Knafo | 2.6% |
David Lisnard | 2.2% |
Raphaël Glucksmann | 2.1% |
Jean Castex | 1.7% |
Gérald Darmanin | 1.1% |
Juan Branco | 1.0% |
François Ruffin | 0.9% |
Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.7% |
Laurent Wauquiez | 0.4% |
Éric Zemmour | 0.4% |
Clémence Guetté | 0.3% |
Mathilde Panot | 0.3% |
Manuel Bompard | 0.3% |
Marine Tondelier | 0.3% |
Carole Delga | 0.1% |
Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% |
Fabien Roussel | 0.1% |
Olivier Faure | 0.1% |
Ségolène Royal | 0.1% |
François Asselineau | 0.1% |
Clémentine Autain | 0.1% |
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1% |
Michel Barnier | 0.1% |
Valérie Pécresse | 0.1% |
François Bayrou | 0.1% |
Élisabeth Borne | 0.1% |
Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1% |
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Person BA | 0.0% |
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Person BF | 0.0% |
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