The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Marine Le Pen | 17.5% |
Édouard Philippe | 13.0% |
Dominique de Villepin | 7.2% |
5.0% |
Sarah Knafo | 4.8% |
Sébastien Lecornu | 4.0% |
Bruno Retailleau | 3.3% |
Raphaël Glucksmann | 2.3% |
Éric Zemmour | 1.8% |
François Hollande | 0.9% |
Juan Branco | 0.9% |
Gérald Darmanin | 0.8% |
François Ruffin | 0.5% |
Ségolène Royal | 0.4% |
Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.3% |
Xavier Bertrand | 0.2% |
Élisabeth Borne | 0.1% |
Mathilde Panot | 0.1% |
Manuel Bompard | 0.1% |
Fabien Roussel | 0.1% |
François Asselineau | 0.1% |
Clémentine Autain | 0.1% |
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1% |
Person CQ | 0.0% |
Person BL | 0.0% |
Person BM | 0.0% |
Person BN | 0.0% |
Person BO | 0.0% |
Person BQ | 0.0% |
Person BT | 0.0% |
Person BV | 0.0% |
Person BX | 0.0% |
Person BY | 0.0% |
Person BZ | 0.0% |
Person CA | 0.0% |
Person CB | 0.0% |
Person CE | 0.0% |
Person CF | 0.0% |
Person CG | 0.0% |
Person CH | 0.0% |
Person CI | 0.0% |
Person CJ | 0.0% |
Person CK | 0.0% |
Person CL | 0.0% |
Person CM | 0.0% |
Person CN | 0.0% |
Person CO | 0.0% |
CurrentOther | 0.0% |
Person E | 0.0% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Person M | 0.0% |
Person O | 0.0% |
Person P | 0.0% |
Person W | 0.0% |
Person X | 0.0% |
Person Y | 0.0% |
Person Z | 0.0% |
Person AD | 0.0% |
Person AK | 0.0% |
Person AR | 0.0% |
Person AS | 0.0% |
Person AV | 0.0% |
Person AX | 0.0% |
Person AZ | 0.0% |
Person BA | 0.0% |
Person BC | 0.0% |
Person BE | 0.0% |
Person BK | 0.0% |
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