The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Jordan Bardella | 27.0% |
Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12.0% |
David Lisnard | 1.9% |
0.5% |
Laurent Wauquiez | 0.5% |
Marine Tondelier | 0.5% |
Olivier Faure | 0.5% |
Clémence Guetté | 0.5% |
Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.3% |
Carole Delga | 0.1% |
Michel Barnier | 0.1% |
Valérie Pécresse | 0.1% |
François Bayrou | 0.1% |
Person CP | 0.0% |
Person BD | 0.0% |
Person BF | 0.0% |
Person BG | 0.0% |
Person BH | 0.0% |
Person BI | 0.0% |
Person BJ | 0.0% |
Person BP | 0.0% |
Person BR | 0.0% |
Person BS | 0.0% |
Person BU | 0.0% |
Person BW | 0.0% |
Person CC | 0.0% |
Person CD | 0.0% |
Person F | 0.0% |
Person G | 0.0% |
Person I | 0.0% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Person N | 0.0% |
Person Q | 0.0% |
Person R | 0.0% |
CurrentPerson S | 0.0% |
Person T | 0.0% |
Person U | 0.0% |
Person V | 0.0% |
Person AA | 0.0% |
Person AB | 0.0% |
Person AC | 0.0% |
Person AE | 0.0% |
Person AF | 0.0% |
Person AG | 0.0% |
Person AH | 0.0% |
Person AI | 0.0% |
Person AJ | 0.0% |
Person AL | 0.0% |
Person AM | 0.0% |
Person AN | 0.0% |
Person AO | 0.0% |
Person AP | 0.0% |
Person AQ | 0.0% |
Person AT | 0.0% |
Person AU | 0.0% |
Person AW | 0.0% |
Person AY | 0.0% |
Person BB | 0.0% |
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