Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $22k open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $22k open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The astronomical 12,241% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing—either Ghusar is a genuine long-shot candidate with minimal market attention, or the low price reflects minimal trading activity rather than informed conviction. With 47 days to the June 2026 primary and a moderate cliff risk index of 16, traders should be cautious that this thin market could experience sharp repricing if any campaign developments occur.
Resolution rules
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x08aad24a81ab0bea6a608d5a0f3900386c02555562a09cd39a78072b2c41146b yes 100