What is the current probability for "Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 54¢ (54% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 65 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 481.4% and 663.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

██████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

54¢

Bid/Ask 52/56¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $3,326.183·Closes Jun 30, 2026·65d remaining

0x126633028f9a939c9ff28c9d05baf3ac5c6016fb9fb4f10d78e846fb30005799

7-day price19 snapshots · 4 regime

60¢54¢ current

Apr 2554¢Apr 26

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 481.4%

IY (No) 663.4%

Adj IY 307%

CRI 1

Overround 0.2%

LAS 0.07

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	481.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	663.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	307%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:05:00 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 9:53:28 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x126633028f9a939c9ff28c9d05baf3ac5c6016fb9fb4f10d78e846fb30005799 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions