Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing June 23, 2026. Dan Cox is priced at 56¢ with exceptionally high implied yields on both sides (428% for Yes, 694% for No), suggesting substantial uncertainty despite the moderate probability assessment.
Analysis
Dan Cox is priced at 56¢ with exceptionally high implied yields on both sides (428% for Yes, 694% for No), suggesting substantial uncertainty despite the moderate probability assessment. The 67-day timeframe to resolution combined with 148% realized volatility and a tight 1¢ spread indicates active pricing, though the $50.4K daily volume against $19.6M open interest suggests liquidity could be challenged during sharp moves. The neutral regime score (0.409) and modest 2-point price appreciation over seven days reflect a market in equilibrium, though the elevated info arrival rate (0.6/h) signals ongoing news flow that could shift Cox's positioning as the primary approaches.
Also on kalshi at 53¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3d6221450862c69f69e9b278a9119fc3e11f1c794650f7cddf283d4adefeee20 yes 100