Spread: Club Tijuana (-1.5)

This deeply illiquid market shows a sharp 21% price decline over seven days (19¢ to 15¢) with zero 24-hour volume despite $66.5k open interest and an 18¢ spread, suggesting significant uncertainty about the April 22 Liga MX matchup. The extreme 34,932% implied yield on the Yes side and 6/10 cliff risk index indicate this is a classic low-liquidity trap where the 15% probability may not reflect true match odds, particularly given the -1.5 spread requirement (Tijuana must win by 2+ goals). With only 6 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious of the wide bid-ask and consider that the sharp recent selloff may reflect updated team news or betting market repricing rather than fundamental value discovery.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for April 22 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Tijuana" if Club Tijuana win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CF Pachuca". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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