Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

The market has surged 30% over seven days to 78¢, pricing in a 78% probability that April 2026 ranks among the three hottest Aprils on record, yet the extremely asymmetric implied yields (493% for Yes versus 6201% for No) suggest significant tail risk and potential mispricing given the neutral regime and 792% realized volatility. With only $2.381 in 24-hour volume against $393k open interest and a 10¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to open positions, creating execution risk for larger traders in the final 21 days before resolution. The 3.43 vol ratio and 4.0 cliff risk index indicate elevated uncertainty around the April temperature data release, warranting caution on the consensus view.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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