Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?

The 9¢ price reflects an extremely bearish outlook on Solana reaching $240, implying only a 9% probability despite a massive 1,425% annualized yield for believers—a classic risk/reward asymmetry that suggests either deep skepticism about SOL's upside potential or severe illiquidity concerns. The market has collapsed 53% over seven days (from 19¢ to 9¢) with zero 24-hour volume, indicating potential abandonment and making the $19.2M open interest figure suspect; the wide 2¢ spread further signals thin liquidity and execution risk. With 259 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this market carries substantial tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate directional conviction from broader market conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

Regime

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