Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?

Eric Jones is priced at an extremely high 96¢ probability of advancing from California's 4th district primary, yet the market shows severe illiquidity with only $60 in 24-hour volume against $14.5M open interest, suggesting this price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The astronomical 18,752% implied yield on "No" outcomes indicates the market is pricing in near-zero probability of Jones failing to advance, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if there's meaningful uncertainty about his candidacy. With 47 days until the June 2, 2026 primary and a notable 3-cent price rise over the past week, this market warrants caution—the extreme pricing combined with thin liquidity and high cliff risk (24) suggests either strong conviction about Jones's frontrunner status or potential mispricing due to low trading activity.

Resolution rules

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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