Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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63¢
Bid/Ask 62/64¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $660.54·OI $4,656.293·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining
0x3849e1d62e0807801913d3e2427e8caf3cc6dd1c8ef42d8d5c08c6f9c449dc5e
7-day price119 snapshots · 53 regime
72¢63¢ current
Apr 857¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 310.0%
IY (No) 898.6%
Adj IY 899%
CRI 2
RV 212%
VR 1.23
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)310.0%
IY (No)898.6%
Adj IY899%
CRI2
RV212%
VR1.23
IAR1.1/h
Overround-0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:20:10 PM
Observability mediumEvent type financial
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x3849e1d62e0807801913d3e2427e8caf3cc6dd1c8ef42d8d5c08c6f9c449dc5e yes 100

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