Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The market is pricing a 70% probability of crude oil exceeding $75 by late June 2026, but the extreme 1151% implied yield on the "No" side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the 12¢ spread representing 17% of the current price. The realized volatility of 540% and sharp 15¢ price decline over seven days indicate this market is highly unstable, though the 74-day timeframe provides reasonable runway for price discovery before the 6/30/2026 expiration. The 4.5 information arrivals per hour and taker-dominant regime (0.636) suggest active positioning, but the $655k open interest concentrated in a thin market warrants caution on execution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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