Crude Oil all time high by April 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 10 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
20%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin all time high by ___
Cluster 2
Ethereum all time high by ___
Cluster 3
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June
Cluster 4
XRP all time high by ___
Cluster 5
Solana all time high by ___
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that crude oil will reach a new all-time high before April 30, 2027. The current 27% level suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible within the next 11 months. The main drivers are geopolitical supply disruptions and global demand trends—oil would need significant supply constraints or demand surges to break prior records, whereas improved supply or economic slowdown would lower odds. The resolution hinges on actual prices tracking against historical highs, with ongoing Middle East tensions, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic data from major consuming nations providing continuous signals until the deadline.
- ›Crude oil's previous all-time high (around $147 in July 2008) sets a fixed target; current prices and forward curves indicate the gap traders believe unlikely to close
- ›Geopolitical events affecting major producers (Middle East, Russia, or other supply centers) could rapidly shift odds upward within days
- ›US crude oil reserve levels shown in related contracts suggest tight supply conditions, which would support higher prices if demand remains steady
- ›Global recession or demand destruction would mechanically reduce probability, whereas sustained economic growth in China and India could support it
- ›The 11-month timeframe allows for seasonal and cyclical variation, but no single scheduled event determines outcome—odds depend on accumulated data releases and market developments
What moved the line
- Jun 15$75↓10pp85→75¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12$75↓5pp87→82¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16$75↓5pp75→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13$75↑4pp82→86¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18$75↓4pp67→63¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in oil
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $60last 88% · 0d
- Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?: 1.5mlast 96% · 0d
- What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gweilast 47% · 0d
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84last 35% · 0d
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $65last 96% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Bearish Oil Bets Surge as Iran Optimism Grows
The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
Oil Traders Pivot to Bearish as Geopolitical Risk Premium Erodes
As the US-Iran peace deal narrative strengthens, oil markets are repricing lower. The probability of crude oil falling below $80 by end of June surged 17¢ to 81¢, while expectations for a rally above $120 collapsed. The VIX fell 4.41%, confirming a broader 'risk-on' shift that typically accompanies a reduction in geopolitical tensions.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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