Crude Oil all time high by April 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 72%, Polymarket at 22% — a 50pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
72%
1 contract
Polymarket
22%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
50pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$236K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
242 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 72¢ · Polymarket 22¢ · 50pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (22¢, 19 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (72¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5” vs “Bitcoin all time high by ___”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 350M
0x351b32…ab9e
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 325M
0x718135…fcf7
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 275M
0x2db76f…844f
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 300M
0x3157cf…eab4
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 375M
0xd5cfe6…641f
Cluster 2
Bitcoin all time high by ___
Cluster 3
XRP all time high by ___
Cluster 4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June
Cluster 5
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June
Cluster 6
Ethereum all time high by ___
Cluster 7
Solana all time high by ___
Cluster 8
will the brent crude oil close price be above 107 usd/bbl on may 04, 2026 at 5:00 pm edt
What moved the line
- Apr 29$60↑28pp64→92¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28$60↓27pp91→64¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28$75↓22pp76→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 1September 30, 2026↓21pp28→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28September 30, 2026↑19pp12→31¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in oil.
In oil
Related reading
WTI Crude $100 Strike Surges +23¢ to 74¢ as Iran Conflict Drives Oil Markets
The WTI $100 Polymarket contract exploded today with a +23¢ move to 74¢ — market now prices a 3-in-4 chance crude hits $100 this month. USO is up 1.79% in traditional markets, confirming the signal. Strait of Hormuz disruption markets remain elevated with normalization not expected until May at earliest.
Oil Pressure Mounts as WTI April Contracts Reprice Lower
With USO down 2.24% today, prediction markets for WTI in April are seeing broad repricing downward. The ↑$105 contract dropped 7 cents, ↑$110 fell 4 cents, and ↑$100 fell 4 cents — while Hormuz normalization by May gained 5 cents to 39¢. The tension between Iran conflict (bullish oil) and Hormuz reopening expectations (bearish oil) is playing out in real-time.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.