Will Club Puebla vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw?

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Club Puebla vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite $197.8k open interest and a massive 48¢ spread, suggesting the 31¢ price may not reflect true probability.

██████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
26¢
Bid/Ask 25/27¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $6,454.836·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0x4146ad521ec10b4867654e940bded5fe403c240e7f17a6dc115738b277c270f0
7-day price341 snapshots · 2 regime
42¢26¢ current
Apr 1813¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite $197.8k open interest and a massive 48¢ spread, suggesting the 31¢ price may not reflect true probability. The implied yield of 14,593% on the Yes side is mathematically nonsensical given the 6-day timeframe and indicates severe mispricing or stale quotes rather than genuine market opportunity. With realized volatility at 1,797% and the match occurring tomorrow (April 24), this appears to be a dead or abandoned market where positions are trapped rather than actively traded.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 24, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 46068.6%
IY (No) 5687.1%
Adj IY 23034%
CRI 3
Overround -0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)46068.6%
IY (No)5687.1%
Adj IY23034%
CRI3
Overround-0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:59:00 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x4146ad521ec10b4867654e940bded5fe403c240e7f17a6dc115738b277c270f0 yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions