Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $861.675 in open interest, and the 17¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty around Rice's 41% implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $861.675 in open interest, and the 17¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty around Rice's 41% implied probability. The astronomical 1048% realized volatility and 371% implied yield on the Yes side suggest this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position rather than an efficiently-priced market, with the high info arrival rate (2.2/h) potentially reflecting sporadic large trades rather than continuous price discovery. With 136 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, the market appears to be waiting for material information about Rice's 2025-26 season performance to drive meaningful volume.
Also on kalshi at 39¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2025-26 PFA Players' Player of the Year. If two or more players are announced as winners of the 2026 PFA Players’ Player of the Year award, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no 2025-2026 PFA Players' Player of the Year winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Professional Footballers’ Association; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x418facc67d42c3902480056ab7cfa2de3c2e517cb655ed45b7dbb5c265b89596 yes 100