Who will win Players' Player of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Who will win Players' Player of the Year?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward pressure over the past week, declining from 55¢ to 42¢ (a 24% drop), suggesting deteriorating odds for Declan Rice to win the 2025-26 PFA award despite the 43% current probability still implying a competitive chance.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure over the past week, declining from 55¢ to 42¢ (a 24% drop), suggesting deteriorating odds for Declan Rice to win the 2025-26 PFA award despite the 43% current probability still implying a competitive chance. The extremely high realized volatility of 1149% and vol ratio of 11.84 indicate this is a highly unstable market with outsized price swings relative to typical prediction markets, though the tight 1¢ spread and $35,992 open interest suggest reasonable liquidity for the venue. With 624 days until expiry and an 81% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side, the market appears to be pricing in substantial uncertainty about Rice's performance trajectory, though the information arrival rate of 2.7 events per hour suggests active repricing as new football developments emerge.
Also on polymarket at 33¢(Δ +11¢)
Resolution rules
If Declan Rice wins the Professional Footballers' Association (PFA) Players' Player of the Year in the 2025-2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPFAPOY-2526-DRIC yes 100