Will BP be acquired before 2027?

BP's acquisition probability is priced at just 20¢ despite an extraordinarily high 566% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant underpricing or market skepticism about a major oil supergiant being acquired within 258 days. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $16.9M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a relatively illiquid position where the extreme yield may reflect compensation for execution risk rather than genuine acquisition likelihood. With neutral regime conditions and minimal recent price movement (19¢ to 20¢ over 7 days), the market appears fairly settled, though the 4/10 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given the approaching end-2026 deadline.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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