Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The 29¢ price implies a relatively low probability of RFK Jr. departing before year-end 2026, but the Yes side offers an exceptionally high 346% implied yield compared to just 57.8% for No, suggesting significant asymmetric risk-reward that may be attracting contrarian bettors. With only $241 in 24-hour volume against $12.8M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns and indicating this market lacks broad participation despite the compelling odds. The modest 2¢ spread and flat 7-day price movement (27¢ to 29¢) suggest the market has settled into equilibrium, though the 258-day timeframe provides ample runway for sentiment shifts around administration dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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