What is the current probability for "Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 249 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 86.2% and 250.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 28/92¢·Spread 64¢·Vol $0·OI $542.32·Closes Dec 31, 2026·249d remaining

0x4cad4fbbb7b4378dba4f0023c5cc5aa4bb54fff92c03b35622e6a1a7d5900be4

7-day price134 snapshots · 3 regime

70¢60¢ current

Apr 2556¢Apr 26

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 86.2%

IY (No) 250.0%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 2

Overround 1.1%

LAS 1.05

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	86.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	250.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

64¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:01:34 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 9:53:28 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4cad4fbbb7b4378dba4f0023c5cc5aa4bb54fff92c03b35622e6a1a7d5900be4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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