Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.2M open interest and a massive 9¢ bid-ask spread representing 129% of the current 7¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.2M open interest and a massive 9¢ bid-ask spread representing 129% of the current 7¢ price. The 2217% implied yield on the Yes side is mathematically unsustainable and reflects the spread's distortion rather than genuine market consensus, while the 3577% realized volatility and 9.34 vol ratio indicate wild historical swings that have likely trapped capital on both sides. With 258 days to expiration and only 4.8 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a dead or abandoned market where the last price discovery occurred during the recent 6¢-to-9¢ movement, leaving current traders unable to exit without absorbing severe slippage.
Also on kalshi at 24¢(Δ +19¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x507746b101b9b031567da9c5cb1bf714dac808299708020fc91a9fa6a6032978 yes 100