Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.214 in open interest, paired with a massive 33¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the Yes-side implied yield to an unrealistic 2778.9%. The price has crashed 53% over seven days (from 49¢ to 23¢), suggesting either shifting sentiment toward Cassie's survival or thin-market volatility rather than fundamental conviction. With Season 3 premiering April 12 and the market closing May 31, there's only 44 days of runway, creating cliff risk (score of 3) as resolution approaches—traders should be cautious that the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

"Euphoria: Season 3" is scheduled to air eight episodes weekly on Sundays at 9PM ET, beginning April 12. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Euphoria: Season 3". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will NOT qualify. A death must be permanent to count toward resolution. (For example, an overdose resulting in a stopped heart followed by subsequent revival with medical intervention would not qualify.) Qualifying deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Euphoria: Season 3" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "Euphoria: Season 3" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Euphoria: Season 3" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "Euphoria: Season 3" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "Euphoria: Season 3" is released.

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