Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5)
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5). This contract trades at 19¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes price collapsing 48¢ to 25¢ over seven days while zero volume traded in the last 24 hours, suggesting the position may be illiquid or abandoned.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes price collapsing 48¢ to 25¢ over seven days while zero volume traded in the last 24 hours, suggesting the position may be illiquid or abandoned. The astronomical 18,494% implied yield and 3,047% realized volatility indicate severe mispricing or a broken market, likely reflecting a stale quote with no recent trading activity despite $84k open interest. With only 6 days to resolution and a 7¢ bid-ask spread on a 25¢ price, this appears to be a dead market where the last trade may not reflect current betting sentiment on the April 22 Liga MX matchup.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for April 22 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CF Pachuca" if CF Pachuca win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Club Tijuana". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (3)▼ Full indicator table (3)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 50000% |
| CRI | 4 |
| Overround | 1.8% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x55a72103ee6a0e31f03fe35922f2e087228ac5cb4ee277ebea5d0b0a5c52c3f3 yes 100