Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,424.8% implied yield on the Yes side despite Solana needing only a 23% move from current levels to $260 over 259 days—a modest target given SOL's historical volatility. The 9¢ price reflects severe illiquidity ($0 24h volume, $21k open interest) and likely undervalues the probability, as the neutral regime score and wide spread suggest thin order books rather than genuine bearish conviction. The high cliff risk index (10) warrants caution, as the resolution criteria's reliance on a single 1-minute candle high between specific dates creates binary execution risk that may not be fully priced into the 9% probability.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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