Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing in only a 9% probability that Solana reaches $280 by end-2026, implying roughly a 3x move from current levels, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1,425% implied yield for "Yes" positions versus just 13.9% for "No"—a classic risk/reward skew typical of long-shot binary bets. Volume is thin at $441 daily against $20k open interest, and the recent price decline from 10¢ to 9¢ over seven days suggests weakening conviction among bulls, though the 259-day timeframe and neutral regime score (0.341) leave substantial room for narrative shifts. The high cliff risk index of 10 and binary resolution mechanics tied to a single 1-minute candle spike create execution risk that may be underpriced relative to the headline probability.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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