What is the current probability for "Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 43¢ (43% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 197.2% and 112.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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43¢

Bid/Ask 41/45¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $66.667·OI $5,605.413·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x5c2f3ac4fe84f1a399f9f1e05de8e5cf1a5e80e2de32e92c084253972a3e7e67

7-day price373 snapshots · 9 regime

53¢43¢ current

Apr 835¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 197.2%

IY (No) 112.3%

Adj IY 179%

CRI 1

RV 366%

VR 2.75

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	197.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	112.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	179%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	366%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.75	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:04:27 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x5c2f3ac4fe84f1a399f9f1e05de8e5cf1a5e80e2de32e92c084253972a3e7e67 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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