Will Antony Barran advance to the general election for WA-03?

The 26¢ price reflects a 26% probability that Barran advances, but the extreme 953% implied yield on the Yes side and massive 589% realized volatility suggest severe illiquidity and pricing distortion rather than genuine market conviction—the $0 24-hour volume and 45¢ spread confirm this is a thin, speculative market. With 109 days until the August 4, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to generate reliable probability estimates, making this contract more suitable for informed political insiders than casual traders.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

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