Will Dantes receive a Twitch ban by May 1, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 59¢ spread, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for assessing true probability. The astronomical implied yield of 4410% on the "Yes" side suggests severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in tail-risk scenarios, though the neutral regime and modest 1.8 info arrivals per hour indicate no imminent catalyst. With only 15 days to expiry and realized volatility at 831%, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dantes receives a Twitch ban by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official announcements from Twitch that Dantes has been banned will qualify regardless of whether the enforcement of the ban has not yet gone into effect. For the purposes of this market, any form of account ban on Twitch, including temporary, indefinite, or permanent suspensions, will count. Content or feature restrictions such as chat timeouts, demonetization, emote removals, loss of partner status, etc., will not count. The primary resolution source will be Twitch.com (e.g., https://www.twitch.tv/dantes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

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