Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Sharon Brown is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite $12.7M in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position.
Analysis
Sharon Brown is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite $12.7M in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position. The astronomical 12,241% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 1,631% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 16 indicates severe mispricing or a liquidity trap where the small position size cannot be easily exited. With 47 days to the June 2, 2026 close and minimal information arrival (1.2 updates/hour), this market appears abandoned and should be treated with extreme caution—the price likely reflects a trapped bet rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6655c73c7951254b4be7c32fdfde2a7a16f1f0f7f340f7bc1023ac37b3613f95 yes 100