Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. NVIDIA is priced at an extremely high 88% probability of holding the world's largest market cap position through June 2026, yet the "No" side offers a staggering 4,167% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk concentration.
Analysis
NVIDIA is priced at an extremely high 88% probability of holding the world's largest market cap position through June 2026, yet the "No" side offers a staggering 4,167% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk concentration. The 71-day timeframe and modest $2,601.67 daily volume create liquidity concerns, while the 8/10 cliff risk index and 58% realized volatility indicate this market could experience sharp repricing if major tech stocks shift valuations. The recent 4-cent price climb (85¢ to 89¢) combined with the taker regime suggests conviction buying into what may be an overcrowded long position.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95 yes 100