2nd largest company end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 49%, Polymarket at 36% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
9 contracts
Polymarket
36%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
+2pp
11h ago
24h volume
$86K
19 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 49¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (36¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the rate of c” vs “Largest Company end”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of c
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.9
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.6%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.4
Cluster 2
Largest Company end
Largest Company end of June?: Alphabet
0x416242…f0f0
Largest Company end of June?: NVIDIA
0x79afea…1f95
Largest Company end of December 2026?: Alphabet
0x39676b…8f7c
Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA
0x684e5b…4696
Largest Company end of December 2026?: SpaceX
0xa226da…3574
Largest Company end of December 2026?: Apple
0x55a5a4…176a
Cluster 3
Which company has
Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x734c6c…eee7
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google
0x0bd1b8…76e4
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xa4d726…9cca
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xd0e97d…c55a
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that a specific company will be the second-largest by market capitalization at the end of April 2026. The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (49%) and Polymarket (32%) suggests disagreement about which company is most likely to hold this position. Market participants appear to be weighing factors including relative stock performance, earnings announcements, and shifts in investor sentiment across technology and artificial intelligence sectors. The current 40% aggregate reflects uncertainty about whether one clear candidate will emerge as second-largest, or whether competitive positioning among major tech firms will remain contested. Resolution will occur when market capitalizations are measured at the close of April 2026, with real-time stock price movements and trading volume in the months leading up to that date serving as the primary indicators of how this probability may shift.
- ›Relative stock price performance of leading tech companies (Alphabet, NVIDIA, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon) directly determines their market cap rankings on the resolution date
- ›The 17 percentage-point venue gap suggests meaningful disagreement on fundamentals; analyzing what specific information each market is weighting differently could indicate mispricing
- ›AI model capability announcements and market perception of which company leads in artificial intelligence will likely influence tech valuations substantially through April 2026
- ›Earnings results and forward guidance from major technology companies in Q1 and Q2 2026 will provide concrete data affecting investor positioning
- ›Correlation patterns between the top-performing contracts (NVIDIA at 69¢, Anthropic at 68¢) and this probability may indicate spillover effects from AI sector confidence
What moved the line
- Apr 27Above 3.4%↓25pp94→69¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Above 3.4%↑25pp69→94¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Alphabet↑19pp12→31¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Alphabet↓15pp31→16¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28SpaceX↑13pp3→16¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.