Best Chinese AI Company end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 66% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
66%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$347
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
115 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Analysis
This probability indicates a 57% chance that Anthropic will have the best coding model among AI companies by December 31, 2026. The assessment reflects Anthropic's current standing in code generation capabilities, though the AI coding landscape remains highly competitive. Major factors influencing this estimate include the rate at which competitors like DeepSeek, Baidu, or Alibaba release improved models, as well as how benchmark performance is measured and which tasks define "best." The outcome will become clearer as major AI companies release updated models throughout 2026, with significant announcements likely occurring at conferences, through research papers, or via public model releases. The relatively modest probability suggests meaningful uncertainty despite Anthropic's present position, reflecting the fast-moving nature of AI development and the difficulty in predicting which company will maintain technical leadership in a specific capability by year-end.
- ›Benchmark performance on coding-specific evaluations (HumanEval, MBPP, LeetCode-style tasks) released by independent researchers or companies through December 2026
- ›Frequency and quality of model releases from competing Chinese and international AI companies, including DeepSeek, Baidu, Alibaba, and others
- ›Definition of 'best' coding model—whether measured by speed, accuracy, reasoning ability, or performance on specialized programming tasks
- ›Adoption metrics and feedback from developers using each company's coding tools in production environments
- ›Research publications and technical benchmarks released at major AI conferences (NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR) in late 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 5Anthropic↑11pp58→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Anthropic↑8pp50→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 6Anthropic↓5pp69→64¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Anthropic↓4pp58→54¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Anthropic↓4pp54→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (66% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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