Best Chinese AI Company end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 42%, Polymarket at 33% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
6 contracts
Polymarket
33%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$74K
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
242 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 42¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (33¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Which company has” vs “Will the rate of c”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which company has
Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x734c6c…eee7
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xa4d726…9cca
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google
0x0bd1b8…76e4
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: xAI
0xe56341…0da1
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xd0e97d…c55a
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x06a7a2…02c6
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Google
0x9a43c9…e5f3
Cluster 2
Will the rate of c
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8
Cluster 3
Largest Company end
Largest Company end of June?: Alphabet
0x416242…f0f0
Largest Company end of June?: NVIDIA
0x79afea…1f95
Largest Company end of December 2026?: Alphabet
0x39676b…8f7c
Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA
0x684e5b…4696
Cluster 4
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Cluster 5
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?: December 31
0xca52ff…1932
What moved the line
- Apr 28Alphabet↑19pp12→31¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Alphabet↓15pp31→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 1NVIDIA↓12pp78→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 1NVIDIA↓12pp65→53¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Alphabet↑11pp8→19¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.