Will NVIDIA still be the largest company?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 6 contracts. Kalshi at 16%, Polymarket at 80% — a 64pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
4 contracts
Polymarket
80%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
64pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51K
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
514 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 16¢ · Polymarket 80¢ · 64pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (16¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (80¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Largest Company end” vs “Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Largest Company end
Cluster 2
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
Cluster 3
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 5
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 2Before Oct 1, 2026↓11pp24→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Yes↓7pp53→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6NVIDIA↓5pp71→66¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2NVIDIA↑4pp69→73¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2NVIDIA↑3pp92→95¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5Tlast 3% · 0d
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 5d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 6d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 8d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies: Claude Mythos Release Jumps 25 Cents
Anthropic is the favorite for best AI model in June at 85 cents, but the big story is the Claude Mythos release timeline. The market for a Mythos release by June 15 surged 25 cents to 46 cents, while the Claude 5 release by June 30 rose 8 cents to 37 cents. This signals a major AI release cycle is imminent.
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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