Will NVIDIA still be the largest company?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$767
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
408 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine” vs “Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 2
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that NVIDIA will not remain the world's largest company by market capitalization. NVIDIA's current dominance stems largely from its AI chip leadership, but the probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether this position persists. The main factors driving this relatively low probability are competition intensifying from other chipmakers, potential commoditization of AI chips, and the possibility that other companies (particularly those benefiting from AGI breakthroughs or other technological shifts) could grow faster. Key catalysts include earnings reports showing margin compression, rival chip announcements, broader tech market rotations away from AI concentration, and any major developments in AGI that might shift investor focus to different companies. The market is essentially pricing in a two-in-three chance that NVIDIA faces competitive pressures or market dynamics that eventually displace it from the top position.
- ›NVIDIA's gross margins and market share in GPU/AI chip markets relative to AMD, Intel, and emerging competitors
- ›Capital expenditure trends at major cloud providers and AI infrastructure spending growth rates
- ›Announcements of competing chip architectures or in-house chip development by major tech companies
- ›Broader market concentration trends and whether investor capital rotates away from AI-heavy positions
- ›Regulatory or geopolitical developments affecting semiconductor supply chains or export policies
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Oct 1, 2026↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.