Will NVIDIA still be the largest company?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$292
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
468 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine” vs “Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 2
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
Cluster 3
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026
Cluster 4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 19Yes↑4pp52→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Yes↓3pp58→55¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- Will OpenAI go public?last 52% · 0d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 99% · 0d
- How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?last 24% · 1d
- Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026last 97% · 15d
- Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026last 4% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race: Claude Leads, GPT-6 Expected by 2027
Anthropic's Claude is heavily favored as the best AI model in July 2026 (96¢), and OpenAI's GPT-6 release before 2027 is priced at 82¢. These markets reflect intensifying competition and investor focus on AI leadership.
Anthropic Widens Lead in AI Model Race Ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Release
Anthropic's models are trading at 83¢ to be crowned 'Best AI in July 2026', while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release has a 73% probability of launching within the next 4 days. The competition is fierce and directly relevant to AI infrastructure spending, compute pricing, and tech sector valuations.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.