Largest Company end of June?
Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
NVIDIA
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Alphabet
Spread
91pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$97K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
14 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Largest Company end of June
Largest Company end of June?: NVIDIA
0x79afea…1f95
Largest Company end of June?: Alphabet
0x416242…f0f0
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 69% probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market capitalization at the end of June 2026, with Alphabet at 29% as the primary alternative. This probability reflects expectations about AI sector momentum, earnings performance, and relative valuation trends over the next two months. The prediction could shift based on quarterly earnings reports, chip demand indicators, and macroeconomic conditions affecting both technology stocks. Key catalysts include upcoming earnings seasons and any significant announcements regarding AI model capabilities or deployment, which typically influence relative valuations between chip makers and software/AI companies.
- ›Current market leadership: NVIDIA maintains substantial capitalization advantage, but Alphabet (Google/parent company) remains a strong alternative with meaningful trading volume at 29%
- ›Earnings catalysts: Q1 2026 earnings reports and forward guidance from both companies will provide concrete data on revenue growth, profit margins, and AI investment returns
- ›Chip demand indicators: Data center orders, GPU availability, and AI infrastructure spending through June will directly impact NVIDIA's valuation trajectory
- ›Macroeconomic conditions: Interest rate environment and technology sector sentiment between May and June could differentially affect AI-focused versus diversified tech valuations
- ›AI model competition: Announced AI breakthroughs or deployment wins by Alphabet's AI division versus NVIDIA's accelerator business could shift investor positioning
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Nears
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.