Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market prices a 19% probability of Extended reaching a $500M FDV within one day of launch, offering a striking 601% implied yield on the Yes side despite relatively thin $71K open interest and modest $3.3K daily volume.
Analysis
This market prices a 19% probability of Extended reaching a $500M FDV within one day of launch, offering a striking 601% implied yield on the Yes side despite relatively thin $71K open interest and modest $3.3K daily volume. The sharp 2-cent price rise over seven days combined with a 4/10 cliff risk index suggests growing conviction among traders, though the neutral regime and wide 285% risk-adjusted yield indicate substantial uncertainty around both the launch timing and post-launch valuation dynamics over the 259-day window.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7fd2f50352ef2c9e7b462a46b893792d7a6bf510bf0bc2e1f07f85b1ea1e8ca8 yes 100